Oracle (ORCL) Stock: What to Expect From Earnings Today

TLDR

• Wall Street expects Oracle Q3 EPS of $1.70, up 15.6% year-over-year, and revenue of $16.92 billion — about 20% growth.
• OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) grew 68% last quarter, powered largely by a $300 billion deal with OpenAI.
• Oracle’s debt and lease liabilities rose $23 billion in just the first half of fiscal 2026; buybacks have essentially stopped.
• RPO (remaining performance obligations) surged 438% to $523 billion in Q2, signalling strong future revenue.
• ORCL stock is down 22% year-to-date and has fallen 56% from its September peak.

Oracle’s Q3 earnings drop today after the bell, and investors are watching one thing closely: is the cloud growth worth the mountain of debt piling up?

Oracle Corporation, ORCL

The numbers analysts want to see are an EPS of $1.70 and revenue of around $16.92 billion. That would represent roughly 20% top-line growth year-over-year — a big jump for a company that grew sales at just 1% annually between 2012 and 2020.

The cloud transformation is clearly working on the revenue side. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure grew 68% last quarter, with OpenAI as a key driver. The two companies have a multi-year contract reportedly worth $300 billion, making it one of Oracle’s most consequential partnerships.

Cloud applications, the more traditional SaaS side of the business, grew 11% in the same period. Together, the two cloud segments now make up roughly half of Oracle’s total sales.

One number that got heads turning last quarter was the RPO figure. Oracle reported a 438% surge in remaining performance obligations to $523 billion in Q2 — a forward-looking metric that reflects contracted but not-yet-recognised revenue. That’s a big pipeline.

The Debt Question

But the cost of building out all that cloud infrastructure is real and it’s growing fast. In the first six months of fiscal 2026, Oracle’s debt and lease liabilities rose by $23 billion. Free cash flow has turned negative — roughly -$10 billion — while capital expenditure hit around $12 billion.

Share buybacks have all but stopped, and the dividend is essentially being funded by new debt. Last month, Oracle said it plans to raise $45 to $50 billion through equity and debt sales in 2026.

ORCL stock is down 22% year-to-date, and has dropped 56% from its September 2025 peak as investors began to grapple with the scale of spending needed to compete in the AI infrastructure race.

What Analysts Are Saying

RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria kept a Hold rating and cut his price target to $160 from $195. He flagged concerns around Oracle’s reliance on OpenAI, pointing out that Anthropic is gaining ground in enterprise use. He also noted that Blue Owl, Oracle’s largest Stargate financing partner, declined to fund a 1 GW Michigan campus over leverage concerns.

Piper Sandler’s Billy Fitzsimmons is more optimistic, maintaining a Buy with a $240 target. He argues the current stock price gives Oracle almost no credit for future AI monetisation.

Overall, Wall Street holds a Strong Buy consensus based on 25 Buys and 6 Holds. The average price target sits at $263.86 — roughly 74% upside from current levels.

Options traders are pricing in an 11.15% move in either direction after earnings. That’s actually below Oracle’s average post-earnings swing of 14.39% over the past four quarters.

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