Adobe (ADBE) Stock Under Pressure as Four Analysts Slash Price Targets Before Earnings Thursday

TLDR

• TD Cowen slashed its price target on Adobe from $400 to $325, maintaining a “hold” rating
• The consensus analyst rating is “Hold” with an average price target of $383.08, though targets range wildly from $302 to $500
• Adobe beat Q4 estimates (EPS $5.50 vs. $5.40; revenue $6.19B vs. $6.11B) but the stock still trades around $282 — below its 200-day moving average of $325
• Q1 2026 earnings are due March 12; analysts expect EPS of ~$5.87 and revenue of ~$6.275 billion
• Adobe’s Digital Media ARR is forecast at ~$19.44B, up from $17.63B a year ago

Adobe is heading into its Q1 2026 earnings report on March 12 under pressure. The stock opened at $282.43 on Tuesday — well below its 200-day moving average of $325 and a long way from its 52-week high of $444.54.

Adobe Inc., ADBE

TD Cowen made that picture a bit grimmer this week, cutting its price target from $400 to $325 while keeping a “hold” rating. That new target still implies about 15% upside from current levels, but the move reflects growing caution among analysts.

TD Cowen wasn’t alone. Wells Fargo also trimmed its target, dropping it from $420 to $405, though it kept an “overweight” rating. Citigroup cut to $315 and called Q1 likely “uneventful.” Weiss Ratings went further, downgrading Adobe from “hold” to “sell.”

Not everyone is down on the stock. RBC kept its “outperform” rating with a $430 target. DA Davidson still carries a $500 price target with a “buy.” HSBC set a $302 target back in February.

The overall analyst picture: 1 strong buy, 10 buys, 11 holds, 4 sells. Average price target sits at $383.08 — about 35% above where the stock is trading right now.

Adobe’s last earnings report, from December, was actually solid. The company posted EPS of $5.50, beating the $5.40 estimate. Revenue came in at $6.19B versus the $6.11B forecast. Year-over-year revenue growth was 10.5%.

For Q1 2026, Adobe guided for EPS of $5.85–$5.90. The Street is expecting roughly $5.87 per share and revenue of about $6.275B.

Subscription revenue remains the core of the business, with analysts penciling in around $6.09B. Digital Media revenue is seen at $4.65B and Digital Experience at $1.54B.

Digital Media ARR in Focus

One metric investors will watch closely is Digital Media ARR. It’s expected to land near $19.44B for the quarter, up from $17.63B a year ago. That would reflect continued demand for Adobe’s subscription tools.

Michael Burry recently took a new position in Adobe, which drew attention. Adobe also expanded its partnership with Major League Baseball to deliver AI-driven fan experiences — a commercial win for its AI tools.

On the inside, CFO Daniel Durn sold 1,646 shares on January 27 at an average of $294.85, totaling about $485,323. Insiders overall own just 0.20% of the stock. Institutional investors hold 81.79%.

What to Watch on March 12

Options traders are pricing in a large move around the earnings print. With the stock already down on the year and trading below key moving averages, guidance and commentary on AI monetization — specifically around Firefly, Acrobat, and Express — will likely drive the reaction more than headline numbers.

Adobe set full-year FY2026 guidance at EPS of $23.30–$23.50. The company has a market cap of $115.94B, a PE ratio of 16.90, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53.

Results are due after the close on March 12, 2026.

The post Adobe (ADBE) Stock Under Pressure as Four Analysts Slash Price Targets Before Earnings Thursday appeared first on CoinCentral.