Trading Moment: Markets are caught in a volatile range ahead of the US CPI data release; Bitcoin's pullback needs to hold above the monthly opening support level.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

The interplay between geopolitical uncertainty and inflation data is dragging global markets into a state of extreme tension. Amidst the volatile oil prices, the three major U.S. stock indices diverged: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 0.07% to 47,706.51 points, the S&P 500 declined by 0.21% to 6,781.48 points, while the Nasdaq Composite narrowly closed up 0.01% at 22,697.10 points, supported by the performance of the tech giants.

The crude oil market experienced an epic rollercoaster ride on Tuesday, triggered by an official blunder. U.S. Energy Secretary Kurt Cowell mistakenly posted that the Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, causing WTI crude oil to plummet nearly 20% to $76.73. Prices quickly rebounded after the White House issued an urgent denial.

The crisis of a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is imminent, with nearly 15 million barrels of crude oil trapped daily in the Persian Gulf. Intelligence indicates that Iran has laid dozens of mines in the area and possesses a stockpile of 2,000 to 6,000 mines, along with 80% to 90% of its fleet consisting of small mine-laying vessels. Trump has issued a strong warning, demanding that Iran immediately clear the mines, or face unprecedented military consequences. To prevent oil prices from spiraling out of control, the Trump administration has urgently requested Israel to cease its airstrikes on Iranian energy facilities, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed releasing over 182 million barrels of the largest strategic oil reserve in history.

As crude oil prices fell, gold and silver prices began to rise again. Kristy Akullian, head of strategy at BlackRock, pointed out that the US debt of over 120% and geopolitical instability are reshaping the store of value. Gold has surged 75% in the past year, and silver is projected to rise 148% by 2025 (60% of which will be used in industry, with the electronics sector consuming 445 million ounces annually). Tether has also stockpiled 140 tons of gold.

The market is currently focused on the US February CPI data to be released tonight. Wall Street generally expects the CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, with core CPI rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. Goldman Sachs, however, has given a more dovish forecast, predicting core CPI to rise only 0.17% month-on-month (2.42% year-on-year), overall CPI to rise 0.18% month-on-month, and core PCE to rise approximately 0.24% month-on-month.

The AI ​​Sector: Trends and Events

Meta announced its acquisition of AI agent social network Moltbook, whose founders Matt Schlicht and Ben Parr will join Meta Superintelligence Labs (MSL). The transaction is expected to close in mid-March. Moltbook is a social network for AI agents and operates in conjunction with the autonomous AI agent project OpenClaw. As a result, the market capitalization of the related MEME token MOLT rose to a high of $12 million before falling back, with the 24-hour increase now narrowing to 240%.

Bitcoin price

Like the US stock market, Bitcoin has withstood the test of the macro market and is currently fluctuating within the range of $71,827 to $62,772. Market momentum is recovering, with the 14-day RSI rising to 52 and spot trading volume surging 140% to $9.3 billion. Furthermore, on March 9th, Bitcoin reached the historic milestone of its 20 millionth coin being mined, with a current circulating supply of only about 14.85 million, of which 1.28 million are held by ETFs, making it extremely scarce. Despite lingering geopolitical concerns, genuine buying interest has given the bulls a slight advantage.

Bearish view

The core logic of the bears is that there is a mountain of selling pressure in the resistance zone above. If the bulls cannot quickly break through the key previous high, the price is very likely to fall to seek liquidity, or even trigger a deep chain of liquidations.

• Killa: The current price correction is 50% complete, and the key data from the 14th has already been priced in by the market. In a volatile market, low-leverage liquidations are concentrated in the 64K-66K and 74K-76K ranges. If the price falls towards the monthly/weekly opening price of 66K-66.9K, it is highly likely to sweep up the 64K liquidity pool.

• LP: There is significant order book selling pressure in the 71K-74K area. If buyers cannot absorb this selling pressure, the path of least resistance will be a pullback to the 65K-64K liquidity level.

• Man of Bitcoin: The price must remain below the previous swing high of $71,815 to maintain downward pressure. A break below $65,613 would be the first warning sign of a bearish takeover, while a break below $60,223 would definitively confirm the downtrend.

• Mooncake: The New York session has begun to favor sellers, and we are currently closely watching the CME gap at 70.3K. If the price is resisted at 70.5K-71K, the shorts will be relatively safe, but we still need to wait for a break below the 69K support level.

• Jelle: If Bitcoin encounters resistance here, it will lock in a "deviation + bearish retracement" pattern, and $60,000 will be the next highly probable target.

• Ardi: Bitcoin selling has hit a two-month high, with $1.57 billion in sell orders piled up above, while buy orders below are only $1.125 billion.

• CryptoReviewing: The liquidity in the $64,000-$68,000 range below is four times that above, with $68,000 being the largest single liquidation cluster, which is highly likely to be swept downwards.

• Both Material Indicators and Filbfilb have warned of a potential technical top. Material Indicators points out that multiple proprietary indicators suggest Bitcoin is forming a local top around 71.3K; Filbfilb predicts that bears will strongly intervene near the 50-day moving average at $73,640.

bullish view

The bulls firmly believe that Bitcoin has broken through traditional macroeconomic correlations, and its long-term potential as a global store of value and current holding structure will drive prices to new highs.

• Matt Hougan (CIO of Bitwise): Reiterates Bitcoin's potential to reach $1 million. He points out that Bitcoin currently accounts for less than 4% of the global $38 trillion value storage market, and only needs to capture 17% of the market share to reach the $1 million target.

• Matrixport: Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience, only retracing to the $66,000 support level despite a surge in oil prices. As the market digests the impact of the Iranian conflict, the likelihood of a return to the $70,000-$80,000 range is increasing.

• Wintermute: From a 12-18 month perspective, the current price level is extremely attractive. Crypto market leverage has fallen to half of its peak, the deleveraging process is largely complete, and the gap between price and industry adoption will begin to close.

• Limbo: Bitcoin's macro correlation has been broken. During the most turbulent week, with stock markets crashing and oil prices soaring, it remained rock solid, absorbing all the chaos.

• Michaël van de Poppe: As uncertainty in the Middle East begins to decrease, Bitcoin and altcoins will have more upside potential in the near future.

Market Dynamics

Hyperliquid is arguably the hottest project recently, with its HIP-4 testnet officially launched. It initially introduced periodic binary options based on mark prices, without leverage or liquidation mechanisms. Alexander Pack, co-founder of Hack VC , stated that Hyperliquid has outperformed several billion-dollar perpetual DEXs by successfully creating a user-centric crypto narrative through its democratized liquidity, efficient centralized permissioned blockchain, CeFi-level experience, and fair launches and airdrops without VC involvement. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, is also extremely bullish on the project, predicting that the HYPE token will surge to $150 in August. He pointed out that if Hyperliquid can continue to siphon funds from CEXs and expand trading in macro assets (such as crude oil and gold), its 30-day annualized revenue could reach $1.4 billion. Coinbase analyst David Duong emphasized that open interest market share is Hyperliquid's true competitive advantage; currently, HYPE's strong resistance level is at $35, with core support at $20-22.

The convergence of traditional finance and crypto is accelerating, with stablecoins emerging as disruptive pioneers. Bernstein analysts maintain their $190 price target for USDC issuer Circle stock, anticipating a 60% upside; Circle has already risen over 70% since February . The report notes that USDC supply has rebounded to nearly $78 billion, and the total market capitalization of USD stablecoins remains stable at $270 billion. Driven by payment adoption, Visa now supports over 130 stablecoin-linked cards, with an annualized settlement volume of $4.6 billion. Meanwhile, Elon Musk's ambitious "super app" plan has taken another step forward, announcing that X Money, the digital payment system for the X platform, will begin early public testing next month, attempting to leverage its massive user base to open up new revenue streams.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on March 11)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$251 million

• Ethereum ETF: +$12.5859 million

• XRP ETF: -$3.8803 million

• Fear of Greed Index: 15 (Extreme Panic)

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ICP, XRP, BTC, ETH, FLOW

• Sector Performance: The crypto market continued its upward trend, with the RWA sector rising 2.46%, while only the SocialFi sector saw a slight decline.

24-hour liquidation A total of 73,899 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $206 million, including $62.9655 million in BTC liquidations, $38.1085 million in ETH liquidations, and $7.26 million in SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will launch Nebula 3 (SN3) on March 11th.

• Binance Leverage will delist ARDR on March 12.

• Polkadot plans to implement an economic model reform on March 12, limiting the total supply of DOT to 2.1 billion.

• io.net (IO) will unlock approximately 13.29 million tokens, worth about $1.3 million, on March 11.

• US February CPI year-on-year: expected 2.4%, previous value 2.4% (March 11, 20:30)

• The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress concluded this afternoon (March 12).

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: pippin up 11.3%, ASI Alliance up 7.1%, Internet Computer up 5.7%, Pi Network up 5.3%, and JUST up 4.8%.

Hot News

• Upbit will list its ICP token on the Korean Won, BTC, and USDT markets.

• A major whale increased its short position in crude oil to $24.6 million, becoming the largest short seller of crude oil on the blockchain.

• MiniMax's market capitalization surpasses Baidu's; its founder was once a Baidu intern.

• Three addresses accumulated a total of 49,424 ETH 10 hours ago.

• Hyperliquid: HIP-4 launches on testnet, plans to launch a one-day binary prediction market for BTC and HYPE.

• Goldman Sachs has become the largest holder of the spot XRP ETF; analysts say a large number of "super fan" investors have not yet been disclosed.

• Bitwise's CIO reiterated that Bitcoin has the potential to reach $1 million, stating that it will compete with gold in the global store of value market.

• US senators are seeking a compromise on stablecoin yields to push through the stalled CLARITY bill.

• SolanaFloor was acquired by the Jito Foundation and resumed operations.

• Kraken's affiliated platform xStocks launched the xPoints program, potentially paving the way for token issuance.

• A new proposal from SKY suggests temporarily reducing the SKY buyback ratio to strengthen the USDS capital buffer.

• Polymarket partners with Palantir to develop a sports betting market compliance monitoring platform.

• Sharplink: Ethereum Treasury staking yields nearly 15,000 ETH.

• Strategy accelerates fundraising by issuing STRC and added 1,420 bitcoins to its holdings on Monday.

• Founders Fund's fourth growth fund is nearing completion, with a fundraising target of $6 billion.