Top Crypto Analysts Reveals When is the Time to Buy Bitcoin

2026/03/12 01:45

4 min read

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Key Takeaways

Crypto analyst Merlijn the Trader warns Bitcoin’s cycle may be compressing to 700–800 days, pointing to a potential bottom in July–August 2026
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is not buying Bitcoin yet – he’s waiting for the Fed to restart money printing before re-entering
Hayes warns a geopolitical shock could push Bitcoin below $60K short-term, despite long-term targets of $250K–$750K
Both analysts agree: discomfort at current prices doesn’t mean the opportunity has passed

Merlijn the Trader, a widely-followed crypto analyst with a large social media presence, raised eyebrows this week by flagging a structural shift in Bitcoin’s cycle behavior. His argument is straightforward but carries serious implications: for the first time in Bitcoin’s history, the asset hit a new all-time high before a halving event – something that has never happened in prior cycles.

That anomaly, according to Merlijn, isn’t just a footnote. It suggests the current cycle is operating on a compressed timeline. Where previous bull-to-bear cycles stretched to over 1,000 days, this one may close out in the 700–800 day range. By that math, a cycle bottom lands somewhere in the July–August window of this year – not months from now, not at some distant point in 2027. Soon.

For investors sitting on the sidelines, it’s an uncomfortable framing. Merlijn drew a deliberate parallel to the last cycle, noting that $22,000 felt exactly like this – uncertain, precarious, and counterintuitive to buy. History rendered a verdict on that hesitation.

BitMEX Founder Is Watching the Fed, Not the Chart

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and one of the louder long-term Bitcoin bulls in institutional circles, is approaching the current moment from a different angle – and arriving at a similar conclusion about timing.

Hayes isn’t buying right now. Not because he’s turned bearish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, but because the macro trigger he’s waiting for hasn’t arrived.

His framework is built around liquidity. Bitcoin, in his view, is effectively a barometer for global money supply expansion. It doesn’t move decisively higher until central banks – specifically the U.S. Federal Reserve – shift back toward accommodative policy and restart large-scale monetary expansion. Until that happens, Hayes describes the current environment as a “no-trade zone.”

The risks he’s flagging aren’t trivial. Geopolitical tensions, particularly a potential escalation involving the U.S. and Iran, could generate a sharp risk-off event that drags Bitcoin well below $60,000. He’s also pointed to gold’s recent outperformance against Bitcoin as a warning signal – historically a marker of tightening credit conditions and deflationary pressure, not the kind of backdrop where speculative assets thrive.

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His advice to retail investors is disciplined to the point of being almost blunt: stay liquid, avoid leverage, and don’t chase the price until the Federal Reserve clearly signals a pivot.

The Long Game Remains Intact

None of this pessimism about the short term translates into abandoning Bitcoin altogether. Hayes has publicly maintained targets of $250,000 by end of 2025 or 2026, with more aggressive projections of $500,000 to $750,000 by 2027 – contingent on military spending and fiscal pressure forcing the Fed into aggressive liquidity injections.

He’s also gone on record arguing that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year halving cycle is effectively broken. Persistent government debt, continuous intervention in credit markets, and structural inflation have, in his view, created conditions for a more sustained bull environment rather than the sharp boom-bust cycles that characterized earlier eras.

Beyond Bitcoin, Hayes has positioned in Zcash, mining equities, and physical gold – assets he views as complements to a broad thesis about fiat currency debasement.

What It Means

The convergence between Merlijn’s cycle compression thesis and Hayes’ liquidity-driven framework points to the same general conclusion: the entry window exists, but the confirmation hasn’t arrived yet.

Merlijn’s July–August bottom projection and Hayes’ Fed pivot trigger aren’t identical signals, but they’re directionally aligned. Both suggest the current discomfort in the market isn’t a reason to exit – it’s the reason the opportunity still exists at all.

Whether that thesis holds depends on factors neither analyst can fully control: monetary policy decisions in Washington, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and the pace of institutional capital rotation back into risk assets.

For now, the posture from both camps is the same: watch, wait, and don’t mistake volatility for the end of the cycle.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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