Arthur Hayes Says He Wouldn’t Buy Bitcoin With His Last $1: Here’s Why

Key Insights

• Arthur Hayes says he wouldn’t buy Bitcoin with his last $1 right now.
• The BitMEX co-founder believes AI-driven layoffs could trigger a credit collapse.
• Hayes is waiting for central banks to begin printing money before making his move.

Arthur Hayes says he wouldn’t buy Bitcoin with his last $1 right now. Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast hosted by Natalie Brunell, the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer laid out the reasoning behind his cautious short-term stance on the asset.

Hayes pointed to ongoing geopolitical conflict as a key variable. He stated that the longer the conflict drags on, the probability of money printing rises. He added that the Federal Reserve may need to fund the American war machine this way. That is the moment he intends to buy.

Arthur Hayes Says He Wouldn’t Buy Bitcoin With His Last $1

Hayes made clear his position is not one of lasting skepticism toward Bitcoin. He described himself as “structurally very, very long Bitcoin.” He told Brunell that the need for stateless money is stronger now. He said it is even greater than when the Genesis block launched in 2009.

His hesitation stems from the overall macroeconomic thesis. Hayes argued that Bitcoin is currently functioning as a liquidity alarm, pricing in a coming deflationary event rather than an inflationary one. He identified artificial intelligence as the primary driver of that risk.

AI Disruption and the Coming Credit Crisis

Hayes compared the current AI wave and what happened after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.

That move wiped out roughly 35% of US manufacturing jobs over several years. It drove up borrowing among displaced workers and eventually fed into the 2008 financial crisis.

Hayes argued that AI is advancing far faster than the earlier disruption. Companies like Block have already cut 40% of their workforce overnight.

Hayes said a 10 to 20% drop in white-collar jobs could trigger a Minsky moment. He explained that this point marks when credit destruction becomes self‑reinforcing.

“The recognition of the market for that forward is going to be almost immediate,” he said. “We don’t know when that’s going to happen. It’s just going to be some sort of collective agreement.”

Hayes expects regional banks to fall 60 to 70% within days once that moment arrives. He said depositors would flee to government-backed institutions, forcing the Federal Reserve to print money on a large scale. That, he said, is when Bitcoin becomes the obvious purchase.

Why Bitcoin Has Underperformed Gold

Hayes addressed the gap between Bitcoin and gold over the past six to nine months. The Nasdaq has stayed roughly flat and gold has continued climbing, while Bitcoin has fallen approximately 50%.

He attributed this to a shortage of dollar liquidity relative to demand. Capital expenditure from AI hyperscalers is consuming enormous amounts of capital, leaving less available to flow into risk assets.

On gold, Hayes argued the metal is not rising on a currency debasement trade. Central banks around the world have been buying gold at an accelerating pace since 2008. This trend intensified in 2022 when the US and EU froze Russia’s dollar reserves.

Sovereign nations holding dollar assets face repeated reminders of their vulnerability. Their holdings exist only at the discretion of the US Treasury.

Arthur Hayes Says His Long-Term BTC Case Stands

Arthur Hayes says he wouldn’t buy Bitcoin with his last $1 right now without walking away from his long-term position. He pushed back on the view that Bitcoin has failed those who bought near previous cycle highs.

Hayes compared frustrated holders to those who sold during Bitcoin’s collapse. He pointed to its fall from $1,300 to $135 between 2014 and 2015.

“You would have sold it when it went to 200, or you would have sold it when it went to 99 because it didn’t achieve your short-term expectations,” he said.

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