Black rain and blackouts make for an unhappy new year in Iran

The Iranian festival of Nowruz – new year – is at the end of next week. On Wednesday Iranians should be jumping over bonfires to purge sickness and bad luck. Later they prepare the Haft Sin table – where each of the seven foods begins with the letter S. This year should have been especially joyous as it coincides with the end of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr.

Instead, the capital Tehran has been overshadowed by clouds of black smoke and even black rain after the US and Israel apparently struck oil depots and refineries. Apocalyptic fires could be seen burning in the night sky and in the jubes, the open water channels that run beside Iranian roads.

Internet blackouts make it difficult for ordinary Iranians to find out what is going on. VPNs and satellite dishes are available to those who can afford them but internet connectivity has been only 1 percent, according to the NetBlocks monitoring site. International telephone calls are limited to two minutes at best.

In the vacuum, state-backed TV channels concentrate on alleged US and Israeli attacks on non‑military sites such as hospitals and schools. The state broadcaster also covers regime-organised rallies. Mention of strikes carried out by Iran overseas or of attacks on military infrastructure are absent, according to BBC Monitoring.

In tandem, Iranians must contend with menacing patrols by militiamen and threats from baseej leaders. Text messages warning against demonstrations and urging the reporting of fifth columnists are common. In an indication of the true face of the regime, a member of the parliamentary national security commission warned television viewers: “We do not want your child to be killed, because your child is ignorant and unaware.”

Such threats are not only psychopathic but ill-advised. They come from the same mindset that led militiamen to charge a “bullet fee” to the bereaved for the return of the bodies of loved ones killed in demonstrations earlier in the year.

Tehran’s strategy mistakes

Amid the noise and threats, there have been a number of other missteps in Iranian strategy since February 28 that point to greater vulnerability and incompetence than adumbrated on state television.

First, the meeting of senior leaders in the exposed leadership compound on February 28 was inexplicably naive. It may speak to a martyr mindset, but having dozens of senior leaders killed in one strike was unnecessary.

Second, the targeting of civilians and non-military facilities in all six of the GCC states has been misguided. The actions serve little, if any, military purpose. Now all six states are aligned. They have no choice.

Why also target Azerbaijan and Turkey?

Earlier this week, President Masoud Pezeshkian tried to apologise to the Gulf states but was quickly undermined by regional commanders in the 31 provinces using firing authority to aim drones and missiles across the Arabian Gulf.

Nowruz is usually the occasion for a major speech by the supreme leader. We can expect more defiance and paranoia from Mojtaba Khamenei – if he is still alive – on state-controlled IRIB.

Meanwhile, we await the arrival of the second US carrier battle group in the Indian Ocean. Wars are not for the faint-hearted nor for the impatient. We are still less than two weeks in.