The DEATH BETS Act: Why Lawmakers Are Moving to Shut Down America’s Fastest-Growing Gray Market

TLDR:

• THE DEATH BETS Act seeks to ban prediction contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, or individual death.
• Lawmakers cited $500M in wagers on U.S.–Iran strike timing as evidence of rising conflict speculation markets.
• Bill removes discretion from regulators and sets a clear ban on violent event contracts on U.S. exchanges.
• Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket face scrutiny as war prediction markets attract political attention.

DEATH BETS Act legislation introduced in Washington aims to prohibit prediction markets from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassinations, or individual deaths.

Lawmakers say speculative trading around military conflicts and geopolitical crises has exposed regulatory gaps within U.S. derivatives oversight frameworks and created ethical concerns.

Lawmakers Move to Ban Death and War Event Contracts

The DEATH BETS Act was introduced by Mike Levin and Adam Schiff. The proposal seeks to block regulated prediction markets from offering contracts tied to violent geopolitical events.

The bill would prevent exchanges registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission from listing contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination, or an individual’s death. 

Lawmakers say the current regulatory framework leaves gaps that allow controversial markets to appear.

Under the Commodity Exchange Act, the CFTC already holds authority to restrict contracts tied to war or terrorism. However, regulators must determine whether such contracts violate public interest standards before taking action.

Supporters of the bill argue that the discretionary nature of the rule allows prediction markets to operate in gray areas. The DEATH BETS Act aims to remove that uncertainty by clearly banning contracts tied to violent events or fatal outcomes.

Rep. Levin pointed to recent speculation involving military conflict. According to the lawmaker, more than $500 million was wagered on the timing of U.S. military strikes on Iran.

Sen. Schiff warned that these markets may encourage traders to profit from classified information or geopolitical instability. Lawmakers argue that markets linked to violent events raise national security concerns.

Prediction Market Activity Fuels Regulatory Debate

Prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow traders to speculate on real-world outcomes. Contracts function similarly to binary options, where traders buy shares representing event probabilities.

Recent geopolitical events have driven heavy activity on these platforms. During tensions involving Iran, traders placed large wagers predicting when military strikes might occur.

A multi-outcome contract on Polymarket reportedly attracted more than $500 million in wagers. Traders could purchase shares tied to specific strike dates and profit if the event occurred during that timeframe.

Reports later suggested several suspected insider accounts generated more than $1.2 million in combined profits from related positions. These findings intensified scrutiny from policymakers.

Another contract on Kalshi asked whether Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would remain in power by a certain date. The market reached roughly $54 million in trading volume before trading was halted.

Other markets have speculated on the removal of Nicolás Maduro from power and the capture of Ukrainian territories during the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Some contracts also explored scenarios involving nuclear escalation or leadership changes during active geopolitical crises. Several were later removed following public criticism.

Lawmakers say these examples illustrate how prediction markets can transform live conflicts into tradable financial events. The DEATH BETS Act aims to establish clear boundaries as the industry expands globally.

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