ARK Invest and Unchained Say 34.6% of BTC Faces Quantum Risk

TLDR

• ARK Invest and Unchained published a joint white paper on Bitcoin’s exposure to quantum computing threats.
• The report states that 34.6% of the total BTC supply remains vulnerable to a future quantum attack.
• The firms estimate that about 5 million BTC are exposed due to address reuse.
• They also classify 1.7 million BTC in old P2PK addresses as likely lost but still exposed.
• The paper says that breaking Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography would require around 2,330 logical qubits.

ARK Invest and Unchained released a joint white paper on Bitcoin’s exposure to quantum computing. The report states that 34.6% of the BTC supply remains vulnerable to a future quantum attack. However, the authors state that practical threats remain years away under current projections.

ARK Invest and Unchained Outline Bitcoin Supply Exposure

ARK Invest and Unchained reported that 65.4% of Bitcoin’s supply no longer faces quantum risk under current conditions. However, 34.6% of the supply could face exposure if quantum systems break elliptic curve cryptography. The firms based their findings on address types and public key visibility.

They identified about 5 million BTC, or 25% of the supply, as migratable due to address reuse. They also classified 1.7 million BTC, or 8.6%, as likely lost in P2PK addresses. Those early addresses tied funds directly to public keys, which increases quantum exposure. They also found about 200,000 BTC, or 1%, exposed through P2TR addresses.

The paper explains that quantum computers must break elliptic curve cryptography to access exposed funds. ARK Invest estimates that such a breach would require about 2,330 logical qubits. The system would also need tens of millions to billions of quantum gates.

The authors state that reaching this threshold “will take a very long time.” They structured quantum development into five stages. They argue that only the final stage would break ECC within Bitcoin’s 10-minute block time.

Quantum Timeline and Proposed Bitcoin Upgrades

The paper projects that the first public key breach could occur in the mid-2030s. The estimate aligns with projections from Google, IBM, and Microsoft. However, the authors did not cite a fixed date for capability.

PsiQuantum plans to complete a one-million physical qubit installation by 2027. The Chicago-based firm secured funding tied to BlackRock. The installation would mark a large-scale quantum deployment.

ARK Invest states that Bitcoin must adopt quantum-resistant address formats over time. The paper references lattice-based ML-DSA and hash-based SLH-DSA as alternatives. These schemes fall under post-quantum cryptography standards.

The document also cites draft BIP-360, which proposes a new output type. The draft aims to reduce quantum threats without post-quantum digital signatures. However, Chris Tam of BTQ Technologies stated that such signatures are “essential for any meaningful long-term defense against quantum attacks.”

The report states that Bitcoin governance requires majority consensus for protocol changes. Network participants must approve any soft fork. The authors state that implementation depends on coordinated agreement across the ecosystem.

The post ARK Invest and Unchained Say 34.6% of BTC Faces Quantum Risk appeared first on Blockonomi.