Arthur Hayes Data Shows Bitcoin (BTC) Outperforming Gold, Nasdaq

TLDR

• Arthur Hayes reported that Bitcoin gained 7% since February 28, outperforming gold and the Nasdaq 100.
• Gold fell 2%, and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.5% during the same period based on normalized data.
• Bitcoin dropped to nearly $63,000 after initial strike reports but later rebounded to $67,000.
• The London Crypto Club said Bitcoin reacts to extreme market scenarios on both ends of the risk spectrum.
• On-chain analysts at Arab Chain reported that the Binance BTC Scarcity Index reached 5.10, its highest since October 2025.

Bitcoin gained 7% since February 28, when the U.S.-Iran war began, according to Arthur Hayes. Gold fell 2%, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.5% over the same period. Hayes shared the comparative data on X on March 12, citing a normalized performance chart.

Bitcoin Leads Performance Since February 28

Hayes compared Bitcoin, gold, and the Nasdaq 100 using a shared baseline starting February 28. He showed that Bitcoin rose 7%, while gold declined 2% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%. He said the chart allowed a direct comparison of relative returns across nearly two weeks.

Bitcoin moved higher as energy prices increased on supply disruption concerns. However, the asset showed volatility during the conflict’s early hours. It fell from about $66,000 to just above $63,000 after strike reports surfaced.

Soon after, Bitcoin rebounded and reached $67,000 following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Market participants linked the rebound to shifting risk sentiment. Hayes maintained that the data reflected relative strength against traditional assets.

The London Crypto Club echoed Hayes’ assessment in public comments. The group said it observed similar price behavior during the Israel-Palestine escalation. It stated that BTC reacts to extreme outcomes on both ends of the risk spectrum.

The group added that Bitcoin trades alongside equities during stable periods. However, it said the asset can diverge during tail-risk events. This pattern appeared again during the current conflict.

As of publication, Bitcoin trades near $70,000, according to CoinGecko data. The 24-hour range stands between $69,000 and $71,000, reflecting a daily gain under 2%. Over seven days, BTC shows a 3.5% decline.

The 30-day performance shows a 2% increase at current levels. These figures place Bitcoin ahead of gold and the Nasdaq 100 since February 28. Hayes based his comparison strictly on normalized returns.

Gold and Nasdaq 100 Trail as Supply Metrics Shift

Gold recorded a 2% decline during the same timeframe. The Nasdaq 100 posted a 0.5% drop, based on Hayes’ shared data. Both assets underperformed Bitcoin on the normalized chart.

Meanwhile, on-chain analysts at Arab Chain reported changes in exchange supply. They said the Binance BTC Scarcity Index reached 5.10, its highest level since October 2025. The index measures how much Bitcoin remains immediately available for sale.

Arab Chain stated that thinner exchange supply often aligns with bullish price phases. It explained that holders tend to move BTC into cold storage during such periods. The group linked the current reading to reduced sell-side liquidity.

Despite the outperformance, Hayes said he is not buying Bitcoin at current levels. In a recent interview, he warned that a prolonged conflict could trigger a wider equity sell-off. He said such a scenario could push Bitcoin toward $60,000.

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone outlined a different outlook. He said oil could approach $120, Bitcoin could reach $90,000, copper could hit $6 per pound, and silver could near $100 per ounce. He framed these levels as a collective peak scenario for early 2026.

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