The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict May Be Coming To An End

On Monday, a delegation of U.S. officials arrived in Azerbaijan to discuss a corridor from Azerbaijan through Armenia to the Azerbaijani conclave of Nakhchivan. Armenian officials stated that U.S. representatives would also meet with members of the Armenian government to discuss this new route.

The meeting between U.S. and Azerbaijani officials came a month after Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with President Donald Trump in Washington. During their summit at the White House, the three leaders discussed a framework for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. They also explored new trade opportunities between both countries, addressed the reopening of key transportation routes in the region, and the need to respect and recognize the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The meeting concluded with Pashinyan and Aliyev signing an agreement that committed both of their countries toward peace.

Aside from these discussions, the Associated Press reported that Pashinyan and Aliyev agreed to deals with the United States to bolster energy, technology, and economic relations. They also formally granted the U.S. exclusive rights for 99 years to develop the route from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through Armenia. Dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,” the agreement would allow the U.S. to build rail, oil, gas, and fiber optic lines.

Officials from the United States then traveled to Azerbaijan to discuss how the United States would contribute to peace in the region, as well as how the Trump Route would be operated. It remains to be seen how the corridor will be maintained.

For nearly four decades, Armenia and Azerbaijan have skirmished with each other, primarily over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region that both countries claim. According to Reuters, the territory is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but the inhabitants in Nagorno-Karabakh were predominantly ethnic Armenians. Both countries have fought over this region since the late 1980s, and thousands of Armenians and Azerbaijanis have been killed during the ongoing conflict.

Throughout this period, the Russian Federation and Turkey have offered to assist with peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan, most recently in 2020. At that time, Azerbaijan launched a military operation against Armenia, where Azerbaijani forces took over a part of Nagorno-Karabakh. Following the fighting, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a ceasefire, which was brokered by Russia and Turkey. The Russians also announced that they would deploy peacekeeping forces to Nagorno-Karabakh to mitigate tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

But three years later, Azerbaijan broke the ceasefire by launching an offensive against Armenia. Azerbaijani forces took over Nagorno-Karabakh, and over 100,000 Armenians were forced to flee.

Since the events in the autumn of 2023, Armenian and Azerbaijani officials have held numerous discussions on how to end the conflict. Pashinyan and Aliyev met with leaders from the European Union on several occasions to discuss peace options. The EU would establish a Mission to Armenia in an attempt to defuse the situation. The Europeans also offered humanitarian and financial assistance, and they introduced a peacekeeping force to the region. Despite these efforts, Armenian and Azerbaijani officials were unable to reach a final peace agreement.

Aside from these EU efforts, the United States has also attempted to help defuse the situation. For example, the U.S. has provided humanitarian and financial assistance to Armenia and Azerbaijan. American officials also met with Pashinyan and Aliyev to try to broker peace. In 2024, former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Armenian and Azerbaijani officials to establish a framework for a durable peace agreement. The U.S. Department of State then continued to maintain its relationship and dialogue with Armenian and Azerbaijani officials, which eventually led to Trump’s summit with Pashinyan and Aliyev at the White House in August.

The meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev was also well-received internationally. Following the meeting in August, the EU issued a statement saying it “warmly welcome[d]” the White House summit. The European organization also stated that it was “ready to invest in regional connectivity” to help ensure peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Like the EU, Turkey also welcomed the meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its support for peace, and also offered to assist with peace negotiations.

But as Armenia and Azerbaijan make headway on these peace talks, other countries have been critical of the White House summit. For example, officials from the Russian government questioned the outcome of the meeting.

“We need to see how [the agreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan] will work,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told TASS, a Russian state media outlet. “All the enthusiastic reviews that were heard in the first few days after the meeting in Washington then somehow changed to skeptical assessments when the document was published. We are interested in a real peace treaty being concluded.”

Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the United States of “attempting to usurp the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.” Additionally, the ministry claimed that the U.S. was “interfering in [Russia’s] regional issues.”

Similarly, an Iranian government official criticized the summit at the White House. While speaking with Iranian state-affiliated Tasnim News, Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, stated that the United States needed to respect Armenia’s territorial integrity. He added that the U.S. should not treat the Caucasus as a “piece of real estate.”

Despite these criticisms from Russia and Iran, Pashinyan and Aliyev will note that their summit at the White House was well-received by the United States, the EU, and Turkey. They will also know that these supporters are ready to help their countries in their negotiation process as they look to ensure that the region achieves peace.

Now, as U.S. officials continue to meet with their Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts, international observers will hope that these two countries in the Caucasus will be able to put an end to their differences. It remains to be seen how this process will move forward, and if peace will finally be achieved.