XRP Battles to Hold $3 Support as ETF Odds Surge to 95% — Next Stop $5?

• XRP holds above $3 as ETF approval odds climb to 95%, with traders eyeing a possible move to $5.
• Weak XRPL adoption raises doubts about the rally’s strength despite rising institutional demand.

XRP price is holding above the $3 mark as traders look ahead to a possible United States exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval. Analysts now place the odds of approval at about 95%, a development that could bring fresh inflows into the market.

While sentiment is improving, questions remain about the strength of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) compared with other blockchains.

XRP ETF Approval Drives Demand from Traders and Institutions

The latest rally in XRP came after growing talk of an ETF tied to the coin. Analysts at Bloomberg have raised the likelihood of approval to more than 90%, while some expect a final decision by late October. 

In addition, there is also speculation that hybrid products, similar to Solana’s model, could appear even earlier without needing direct approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission. Still, institutional interest is already showing. 

Data from CoinGlass reveals that XRP futures open interest reached 2.69 billion tokens in August, equal to $7.91 billion. In addition, at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, contracts jumped 74% in a single month, pointing to larger involvement from funds and market makers.

Trading activity has also risen, with daily volumes three times above the usual level. Analysts say whales have accumulated about $600 million worth of XRP in recent weeks, a sign of confidence that an ETF would unlock new liquidity. As discussed earlier, market watchers noted that if inflows arrive, XRP could climb toward the $4 to $5 range before the end of the year. 

As of writing, the coin was changing hands for $2.966, down by 1.23% in 24 hours.

Additionally, while talks of an XRP ETF approval dominate the market, Ripple has strengthened its ties with Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA). As noted in our previous report, the Spanish bank will now use Ripple Custody, giving clients the option to trade and store Bitcoin and Ethereum directly.

Adoption Struggles Weigh on Long-term Outlook 

Despite the stronger price action, XRP has not kept up with gains in the wider altcoin market. Since August, digital assets such as Solana, Cardano, and Ethereum have all advanced by double digits, while XRP has mostly traded sideways. As featured in our previous coverage, its biggest moves came after Ripple settled its dispute with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Adoption of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is another concern. Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD has crossed $700 million in supply, but almost all of it was issued on Ethereum, not on the XRP Ledger. Data also shows XRPL holds only about $100 million in total value locked, much less than rivals like Avalanche, Stellar, and Aptos.

Notably, this gap limits the role of XRPL in payments and tokenization, areas where some investors believe it could compete with the current SWIFT system. Analysts say the ETF decision will be key in the short term, but lasting growth will depend on how much real activity moves onto XRPL.