The EUR/USD pair resumes the downside, breaking below 1.1500 in the early European hours on Friday to trade at levels last seen in November 2025, as the US Dollar (USD) finds fresh haven demand in a risk-averse environment.
The Iran war has no end in sight, with tensions escalating on a daily basis. The latest on the matter shows the Strait of Hormuz remains closed by Iranian forces, while the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated that the Strait should remain closed as a tool to pressure the enemy, adding Iran will avenge the blood of its martyrs. He also said that attacks will “inevitably” continue.
Concerns about interrupted energy supplies resulted in Brent Oil trading above $100 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil surpassed the $90 mark
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/breaking-eur-usd-breaks-below-11500-amid-middle-east-crisis-202603130618
