NEAR Technical Analysis Mar 13

NEAR Protocol is maintaining its uptrend structure with higher highs and higher lows; however, trend continuation with BOS above $1.4955 resistance is visible, while CHoCH risk appears with a breakdown below $1.2077.

Market Structure Overview

NEAR Protocol’s current market structure exhibits a clear uptrend appearance. Price action has been forming higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) in recent periods, confirming the bullish structure. Trading at the current price of $1.35, the 24-hour change shows a slight upward movement at +%1.35. The range is narrowing in the $1.30-$1.42 band, with the position above EMA20 ($1.24) supporting short-term bullish momentum. RSI at 62 is neutral-bullish, and MACD is giving a buy signal with a positive histogram. In the multi-timeframe (MTF) structure, 10 strong levels were identified across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 1 support/2 resistances on 1D, 1S/1R on 3D, and 2S/3R distribution on 1W. This indicates that the overall structure is upward-biased but defending with resistance tests. In structural context, the Supertrend bearish signal aligns with the $1.66 resistance; however, the price’s EMA structure and swing low defense point to trend continuation.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

The uptrend is supported by the classic HH/HL pattern. Holding above the last swing low at $1.2077 (score 63/100) formed an HL, and the price extended from $1.30s to $1.42 targeting HH. This shows buyer dominance; the intermediate resistance at $1.3712 (score 72/100) was overcome. Staying above EMA20 strengthens the short-term bullish structure. The MACD histogram is expanding positively, while RSI at 62 maintains momentum. Bullish continuation target is $1.9598 (score 16), which can be triggered with BOS above $1.4955. The market needs to see LH/LL below $1.2077 to invalidate the uptrend.

Downtrend Risk

For a downtrend, LH/LL signals should be monitored. HH continues without breaking the $1.4955 swing high (score 74/100); however, if rejected and support at $1.2077 breaks, CHoCH forms. This opens the bearish BOS target at $0.5530 (score 22). The Supertrend bearish signal and BTC sideways context increase temporary downside risk in altcoins. In MTF, the 1W 3-resistance weight reminds of higher timeframe pressure.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Main BOS levels are critical: Bullish BOS requires a close above $1.4955, confirming HH and opening the path to $1.9598; this confirms uptrend continuation. Bearish BOS triggers CHoCH with a candle close below $1.2077, initiating LH/LL and bringing structural change toward $0.5530. The $1.3712 intermediate level is a short-term test point; in case of rejection, HL around $1.30 should be defended. These levels are based on swing points and MTF-aligned; breaks should be confirmed with volume increase. The CHoCH that would disrupt the structure becomes the first major low/high break that disrupts the current HH/HL sequence.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $1.4955 (main resistance, score 74/100) – this is the HH target and BOS trigger. $1.3712 (score 72/100) – the intermediate high we passed, a short-term bearish warning if rejected. These points are testing buyer resistance; a break extends the trend. Importance: Rejection at $1.4955 signals sideways, while a break signals extension.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $1.2077 (score 63/100) – HL support, critical for bearish BOS. Minor low around $1.30 acts as a short-term buffer. These levels represent the buyer base; holding preserves HH/HL, while a break brings CHoCH. In MTF, 1W supports (above $1.2077) bolster the long-term bullish structure.

Bitcoin Correlation

NEAR is a highly correlated altcoin with BTC; while BTC is sideways at $72,538 with +%3.08, NEAR’s upward movement reflects decoupling buyers above BTC supports ($70,561, $68,201). If BTC resistance at $73,991 is not overcome, altcoin rally may be limited; since BTC Supertrend is bearish, a break below $70k triggers a $1.2077 test in NEAR. If BTC dominance rises, NEAR remains under pressure; a BTC breakout above $78k facilitates NEAR’s $1.4955 BOS. Main thing to watch: BTC $70k support – this is the pivot for NEAR’s HL.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structure is bullish: HH/HL sequence intact, $1.35 price above EMA20, and indicators supportive. For continuation, monitor $1.4955 BOS; for invalidation, $1.2077 bearish BOS. MTF resistance weight (6R/3S) requires caution, but short-term HH momentum prevails. Integrated tracking with NEAR Spot Analysis and NEAR Futures Analysis is important. Market structure is dynamic; update with swing levels and BTC correlation. Educational note: BOS confirms structural shift – wait for candle closes, beware of false breaks.