NATO Must Draw A Red Line After Russian Drones Over Poland

Russia has once again crossed a dangerous line in its war against Ukraine—this time, by sending more than a dozen drones into NATO territory. On Wednesday, Poland confirmed that 19 Russian drones crossed its borders, four of which were shot down with NATO help. Dutch F-35s scrambled, airspace over Warsaw and Rzeszów was closed, and Polish citizens were told to shelter in place. This was not an accident. It was a deliberate provocation—and the most serious violation of NATO airspace by Russia since the war began in 2022.

The Kremlin insists the incident was “groundless” and that no Polish targets were “envisioned for destruction.” Belarus, Russia’s junior partner, claimed the drones “lost their way.” These excuses don’t hold water. The sheer number of incursions, their direction of travel, and the deliberate timing of the operation point to one conclusion: Vladimir Putin is probing NATO’s defenses and resolve. He is testing to see how far he can push—and whether the alliance will blink.

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk put it bluntly: “This situation brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II.” He is right. And that is why NATO must respond decisively—not with cautious words, but with unmistakable actions that leave no doubt in Moscow’s mind about the costs of further aggression.

NATO’s credibility is the heart of this crisis. The alliance’s security guarantee rests on Article 5 of the Washington Treaty: an attack on one is an attack on all. Poland has not invoked Article 5, but by calling for Article 4 consultations—only the eighth time in NATO’s history — Warsaw made clear this is more than a one-off incident.

Now NATO must be equally plain: Deterrence works only when red lines are clear and backed by force. Russia is looking for uncertainty and will exploit whatever it finds. For two years, Russia has tested NATO’s response with “accidental” missile and drone overflights, each time probing for weakness. Now it’s raising the ante—not one or two drones, but nearly 20. If NATO responds with the same restraint as before, it will only invite more.

What NATO Must Do

First, establish an explicit red line: any drone, missile, or aircraft that enters NATO airspace without clearance will be treated as hostile and immediately shot down. No exceptions. No excuses. This policy must be declared publicly so that Putin knows the consequences in advance.

Second, NATO must move more forces forward. That means 24/7 combat air patrols over Poland and the Baltics, reinforced by U.S. and allied fighter squadrons, tankers, and airborne early warning aircraft. It also means deploying additional surface to air missile batteries to plug gaps in Poland’s air defenses and integrating them fully into NATO’s command and control network.

Third, NATO should accelerate the transfer of modern airpower to Ukraine. The best way to protect NATO airspace is to stop Russia’s drones and missiles before they reach NATO borders. That requires giving Ukraine more F-16s, longer-range surface-to-air missiles, the integrated battle management systems to knit them together, and removing all restrictions on their use against Russia. Helping Ukraine defend its skies is not just charity—it is collective defense.

Finally, NATO must prepare direct retaliatory options. If Russia continues to launch drones that penetrate NATO airspace, then NATO should reserve the right to strike back against the launch sites and drone control stations in Russia or Belarus. That does not mean rushing into escalation. It means making clear that the cost of deliberate provocations will fall on Putin, not on NATO. Only by raising the price will he stop testing the alliance.

NATO Language Putin Understands

Some will argue for restraint. They will say these drones were a mistake, that NATO should not risk a wider war. But history demonstrates that unchecked aggression only invites more aggression. Putin respects one thing only—power. Time and again, he pushes harder when met with hesitation. He only recalculates when confronted with firm opposition, he recalculates. When met with hesitation, he pushes further.

This is not about dragging NATO into war. It is about preventing one. The way to keep conflict from spreading is to show Putin that the alliance will defend itself—immediately, decisively, and without ambiguity. That is how deterrence works.

This is a defining moment for NATO. If the alliance hesitates, Putin will see weakness and press harder. If NATO acts with clarity and unity, Putin will be forced to rethink. The credibility of the alliance is at stake, and with it, the security of Europe and ultimately, the United States.

The message to Moscow must be unmistakable: NATO territory is sacrosanct. Every inch will be defended. Further violations will not be tolerated. If Putin dares to test NATO again, the consequences will fall on him.