India’s oil trade and currency markets are taking a direct hit after the policy split between Washington and Brussels on Russian oil blew wide open this week.
In October, India’s imports of Russian crude are expected to fall slightly from recent levels, while the rupee just collapsed to its lowest level ever against the dollar. It’s the fallout of Donald Trump’s pressure campaign at Russia that is landing squarely on India’s economy.
The U.S., EU, and G7 allies had all agreed after the Ukraine invasion to limit Russian energy profits without halting oil flows entirely. Their workaround was a price cap system: third countries like India could still import Russian oil, but only below a set price. The goal was to keep barrels moving but cut off Kremlin cash.
Then Trump stepped in. Trump, now back in the White House, abandoned the original cap approach and told India to stop importing Russian oil completely.
When New Delhi said no, Trump slapped India with 50% tariffs on its exports to the U.S. and tied the sanctions to a broader push to force Moscow into a Ukraine ceasefire. Those tariffs kicked in last month and are already cutting deep.
Trump demands total halt, EU pushes for tighter caps
The EU isn’t on the same page. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday that the bloc is looking to speed up its phase-out of Russian fossil fuels. Brussels just lowered the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $47.60 per barrel, but the U.S. didn’t support the move.
EU officials are now in Washington, trying to salvage coordination with the G7.
Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects, said, “Sanctions coordination between the U.S. and the other G7 nations does seem to have largely broken down under the Trump administration.”
That breakdown has India stuck between two approaches; one encouraging discounted trade, the other demanding a full shutdown.
Meanwhile, Indian oil buyers are trying to protect themselves. Four traders involved in the sales said Indian importers are now demanding $10 per barrel discounts from Russian sellers to keep within the cap.
In September, discounts hovered around $2-3, but now banks are watching every deal closely due to the growing U.S.-EU divide.
Not everyone is playing ball. Some Russian sellers told buyers the discounts were too steep. Two traders said those cargoes are being rerouted to China instead. That’s why October shipments to India will likely drop to 1.4 million barrels per day, down from 1.6 million in September and 1.5 million in August.
The EU still allows Western shipping and insurance, but only if oil stays below the cap. With Brent crude now at $67, most Russian barrels sold to India are way above that.
Western shippers may be forced out, and Russia is leaning more on its shadow fleet, with tankers covered by Russian insurance and operating outside Western control.
Tariffs fuel investor exit as rupee hits all-time low
While the oil standoff plays out, the economic impact is already here. On Thursday, the Indian rupee dropped to 88.44 against the U.S. dollar, breaking its previous record low of 88.36.
The Reserve Bank of India has been selling dollars to control the speed of the fall, but not to protect any specific level, bankers say.
Foreign investors have pulled $11.7 billion out of India’s debt and equity markets this year. The high U.S. tariffs are shaking confidence in India’s financial stability.
Most other Asian currencies are holding up better, helped by bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut interest rates next week. But India isn’t getting that same breathing room.
Final October oil volumes will be confirmed after trade talks wrap in two weeks. But every sign points to India importing less Russian crude, paying more for the barrels it does get, and absorbing the pressure alone while Western allies drift apart on sanctions strategy.
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Source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/us-eu-split-on-russia-oil-hits-india-trade/
