Bitcoin Inflection Point Forms At $70k As Institutional Demand Offsets Whale Sell-Off

Over the last day, the Bitcoin price has displayed sideways movement, without any apparent intent of a breakout. While this is a typical weekend price action, there has been an interesting update on the underlying dynamics keeping the flagship cryptocurrency grounded around $70,000.

Bitcoin LTH-SOPR Falls To 1.01 — What This Means

In a recent QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, on-chain analyst GugaOnChain reveals that a battle between different cohorts of  Bitcoin investors is currently unfolding. 

GugaOnChain cites the Long-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) metric, which tracks whether long-term investors (who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days) are selling their tokens profitably, or at a loss. Readings above 1 suggest that these investors are accumulating profits, while readings under 1 reveal otherwise. 

According to GugaOnChain, the LTH-SOPR currently stands at 1.01, reflecting that Bitcoin’s long-term investors are exiting the markets at break-even, or with minimal profits. The analyst further explains that this means the “veterans are once again aggressively defending their acquisition cost at $70,675.” 

At the same time, the Puell Multiple reflects a reading of 0.60, which GugaOnChain describes as a typical sign that the market is undervalued and that Bitcoin’s miners are starting to experience exhaustion. Usually, when the Puell Multiple falls to 0.5, it marks capitulation among miners.

It is worth noting that if the Puell Multiple should continue on its approach towards the 0.5 mark, the Bitcoin price could follow on such a bearish move, until its Realized Price at $54,000 is retested.

Institutional Demand Buffers Whale Distribution 

Notably, GugaOnChain explains that the most significant development is still largely dependent on the dynamics between whale cohorts. As of March 13, there was a massive distribution of about 16,100 BTC among the whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. Normally, such a large sell-off should trigger a sudden downturn in the Bitcoin price, but prices only retraced by about 0.33%. GugaOnChain points out that this is due to the absorption of supply by differing whale cohorts, and even institutional investors.

Specifically, the ‘Mega Whales,’ who have custody of more than 10,000 BTC, alongside the ‘Dolphins’ (holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC), both countered what should have been a devastating price drop. At the same time, institutional demand has been unrelenting over the week. During this period, spot ETFs have recorded a total of $763.4 million in net inflows, with $180.4 million coming in on March 13 alone. 

While the Puell Multiple reflects the possibility of $54,000 being visited, GugaOnChain insists that ‘Smart Money currently validates $70k as the “inflection floor”’. As such, if the LTH-SOPR continues to prevail above 1.0, it would reflect that the current Bitcoin cost has been successfully defended. Interestingly, ETF’s conviction capital is already positioned for the next big move. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades for $71,000, reflecting a 0.5% gain in 24 hours.