The Week Ahead: Fed Rate Decision, Oil Crisis, and Micron Earnings in Focus

TLDR

• The Fed meets Wednesday and is expected to hold rates at 3.5%–3.75%, with all eyes on Powell’s press conference
• Oil prices crossed $100 per barrel last week as the war in Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz
• Micron reports earnings Wednesday after its stock more than quadrupled over the past year
• FedEx, Dollar Tree, Alibaba, and several retailers also report this week
• Goldman Sachs says if the Strait stays blocked for 60 days, oil could average $93/barrel in Q4

US stocks fell for the third straight week as the war in Iran pushed oil prices to levels not seen since the 2022 energy crisis. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% on the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2%. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.3%.

Markets are now heading into a packed week with a Federal Reserve decision, a wave of earnings, and Nvidia’s annual developer conference all on the calendar.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Wednesday to discuss interest rates. The Fed funds rate currently sits at 3.5% to 3.75%. Investors are pricing in a near certainty that rates will stay unchanged.

Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the decision. That event may matter more than the rate call itself.

Powell is expected to address divisions inside the Fed. Some members want more rate cuts because of labor market softness. Others are worried that oil-driven inflation could get worse.

This is expected to be Powell’s second-to-last press conference. His term as chair ends in May.

Oil and the Strait of Hormuz

The war in Iran is now in its third week with no sign of stopping. The Strait of Hormuz — a 21-mile-wide waterway that carries roughly 14 million barrels of oil per day — remains blocked.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps has said it will not allow “a liter of oil” to pass through the Strait.

Oil briefly crossed $100 per barrel last Sunday for the first time since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Prices pulled back into the $80s, then climbed again after drone strikes hit key oil infrastructure and Gulf states announced production cuts.

Goldman Sachs says if the Strait stays closed for 60 days, fourth quarter Brent crude could average $93 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate could average $89.

Wednesday also brings the Producer Price Index for February. January’s report showed wholesale prices rose more than expected.

Micron and the Earnings Lineup

Micron Technology reports Wednesday. The memory chip maker’s stock has more than quadrupled over the past year, driven by demand for AI hardware. In its last quarter, Micron posted a 60% year-over-year sales jump and beat analyst earnings estimates.

FedEx reports Thursday. Its stock has risen nearly 25% this year. Investors watch FedEx closely for what its shipping volumes say about the broader economy.

Dollar Tree also reports and will give a read on US consumer health. Its last report said shoppers were “stretched.”

Nuclear energy company Oklo reports Tuesday. Earlier this year it signed a deal with Meta to supply power for the company’s data centers.

Alibaba reports Thursday with plans to boost AI spending. Chinese EV maker Xpeng reports Friday.

Nvidia’s GTC 2026 conference kicks off Monday with a keynote from CEO Jensen Huang.

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