Why Bitcoin rally risks fizzling out at $75,000 price ahead of Fed meeting despite Strategy’s buying spree

Strategy isn’t giving up.

The leading digital asset treasury company in the world continued its aggressive Bitcoin buying spree this week despite fears that the rally is about to fizzle out after the top cryptocurrency hit $75,000 on Tuesday.

The company, led by chair and perennial bull Michael Saylor, purchased $1.6 billion worth of the asset to its treasure trove, pushing the total value of Strategy’s Bitcoin hoard to $58 billion.

Saylor’s confidence is part of a bullish institutional outlook for Bitcoin, argues CF Benchmarks research analyst Mark Pilipczuk.

Not only is Strategy and its Bitcoin treasury rival Metaplanet plotting more deals, but March has also been the best month since October with investors pouring in over $1.5 billion into Bitcoin exchange traded funds, DefiLlama data shows. It is on track to end the four-month selling spree that has seen the top crypto crash over 40% from its $126,000 peak.

“The combination of exchange-traded fund demand and corporate treasury buying is providing a durable bid even as broader sentiment remains cautious,” Pilipczuk said in an investor note shared with DL News.

The push has seen Bitcoin’s price rally by 6% in the past week, a surge “underpinned by a meaningful recovery in its most reliable sources of institutional demand,” Pilipczuk said.

Even so, the bullishness comes as many analysts warn that the rally’s top has already been reached. The rally appears to have been fuelled by short sellers being forced to liquidate their positions as the price rose this week. Once that selling-pressured eases, the price will likely go down again, analysts told DL News on Monday.

Now, all eyes turn to the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday for hints on what will happen next. Investors will closely scrutinise the tone adopted by Chair Jerome Powell for clues about how officials assess the inflationary implications of the escalating war in the Middle East after oil shot up over $105 a barrel on Sunday.

‘Fog of war’

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday will be complicated by the “fog of war,” says economist Ed Yardeni.

Policymakers confront a war that has stranded a fifth of global oil supply and pushed prices above $100 per barrel. Inflation sits about a percentage point above target and threatens to climb further after oil jumped almost 50% in two weeks.

The CME FedWatch tool assigns a near-certainty to an interest rate hold in the 3.50%–3.75% range in the March meeting. That’s down from December, when the chances of a rate cut in February stood at around 58%.

A surprise inflationary tone from Powell’s speech signals the Fed will be cautious about cutting interest rates later this year. Lower rates are beneficial for risky assets like Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, US and Israeli airstrikes and Iranian counterattacks have all but closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz, disrupting a fifth of global oil supply. The European Union declined to support naval operations around the $500 billion maritime chokepoint despite White House calls for support.

Pouring more fuel onto the fire, the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, believed to be carrying 2,200 Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, was tracked near the Malacca Strait en route to the Middle East. The Nimitz-class USS Abraham Lincoln is actively supporting Operation Epic Fury.

Markets are oscillating between fear and relief. On Monday, the S&P 500 rose 1% and rebounded off its 200-day moving average after a 5% decline from its January 27 record high, Yardeni said.

“The expression “the fog of war’ is a bit confusing because fog often lifts within an hour,” he said.

“Wars last much longer.”

Crypto market movers

• Bitcoin is up 1.4% over the past 24 hours, trading at $74,239.
• Ethereum is up 3.2% past 24 hours at $2,324.

What we’re reading

• Crypto PACs get first big 2026 test with Illinois primary — DL News
• Private Credit Is Having a Bit of a Crisis. Will Crypto Do Any Good? — Unchained
• CFTC Moves to Rein In Prediction Markets as Industry Booms — Unchained
• How a Trump fan snagged $2m betting on president’s second memecoin gala dinner — DL News
• Bitcoin just topped $74,000. Here’s what that means for the price ahead of pivotal Fed meeting — Milk Road

Lance Datskoluo is DL News’ Europe-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email him at [email protected].