Citigroup Cuts Its Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Targets, Blaming a Narrowing Window for US Crypto Legislation

Citigroup has revised its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum downward, citing stalled progress on US crypto legislation as the primary driver behind the cuts.

The bank lowered its BTC target from $143,000 to $112,000 and its ETH target from $4,304 to $3,175, according to a research note published March 17.

What Changed and Why

The revision is not a fundamental reassessment of crypto as an asset class. Citi’s analysts are still projecting significant upside from current levels. Bitcoin at $112,000 represents roughly a 52% increase from the approximately $73,500 price at the time of writing. Ethereum at $3,175 implies a 39% gain from current levels near $2,285.

What shifted is the timeline and the catalyst. Citi’s previous targets were built in part on an expectation that the CLARITY Act and related market-structure legislation moving through the US Senate would generate a regulatory clarity event that accelerates institutional adoption and drives further ETF inflows. That legislative progress has stalled, and Citi’s analysts describe the window for meaningful crypto legislation in the current congressional session as narrowing.

The practical consequence of delayed regulation is delayed institutional participation. Large allocators waiting for a clear legal framework before deploying capital have fewer reasons to accelerate their timelines if the framework keeps slipping. ETF inflows, which have been a consistent demand driver since the Bitcoin spot ETF approvals in January 2024, are also influenced by regulatory confidence. A less certain legislative environment reduces the pace of product launches and the appetite of compliance-sensitive institutions to increase exposure.

The Context Around This Cut

The timing of the Citi revision sits in direct tension with several developments covered in earlier reporting this week. BlackRock and Fidelity purchased a combined $232 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum through ETFs on Monday alone. Strategy acquired 22,337 BTC for $1.57 billion last week and now holds 761,068 BTC. Metaplanet raised $531 million to accelerate its Bitcoin accumulation toward a 210,000 BTC target. Institutional buying has not paused while waiting for the CLARITY Act.

That contradiction is worth holding in mind. Citi is arguing that legislative delay reduces the upside ceiling. The actual behavior of the market’s largest institutional participants suggests they are not waiting for legislative confirmation before adding exposure. Whether the legislation arrives or not may matter less to near-term price action than the flow data implies.

The T. Rowe crypto ETF filing is itself a product of regulatory confidence rather than regulatory certainty. Asset managers do not file Amendment No. 2 on a multi-asset actively managed ETF without believing approval is achievable regardless of the CLARITY Act’s exact timeline.

Where Citi Sits in the Broader Forecast Landscape

Citi’s revised $112,000 Bitcoin target is now below Standard Chartered’s $150,000 by end of 2026 projection and well below Bernstein’s $200,000 target for the same period. It remains above JPMorgan’s long-term fair value estimate of $170,000 on a different timeframe basis, making direct comparison difficult.

For Ethereum, Citi’s $3,175 target is considerably more conservative than Standard Chartered’s $7,500 end of 2026 projection, VanEck’s base case of $11,849 by 2030, and Galaxy Digital’s expectation of ETH trading above $5,500. It sits closer to the lower end of the institutional forecast range for the asset.

The cut is notable not because it changes the directional consensus, every major institution still sees Bitcoin and Ethereum significantly higher from here, but because it introduces a specific legislative risk factor that other forecasters have not weighted as heavily. If the CLARITY Act continues to stall through 2026, Citi’s revised targets may prove to be the more accurate frame. If legislation moves, the previous targets start looking more relevant again.

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