Written by Ethan, Odaily Planet Daily On the morning of September 12th, Beijing time, the US federal funds rate market sent a highly unequivocal signal: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at this month's meeting had reached 93.9%. After five consecutive periods of holding steady, the market finally saw a directional shift in monetary policy. Meanwhile, another bet on the Fed's direction over the next two years was quietly gaining momentum: who would succeed Powell as the next Fed Chair? On the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, as of the same day, current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller topped the list with 30% odds, ahead of two other "Kevin" contenders: Hassett (16%) and Warsh (15%). However, the market also retained a more dramatic possibility: "Trump not announcing a successor before the end of the year" still held the highest probability, at 41%. This series of data suggests that the market is simultaneously betting on two paths: one is the consensus path of interest rate cuts, and the other is the still-uncertain battle for monetary helmsmanship. Between these two, Waller's name repeatedly appears in various trading perspectives and policy discussions. Why did the market begin to "believe in Waller"? The story of an “atypical Federal Reserve board member”: How did a small-town professor come to the forefront? Waller's background and resume make him an odd fit within the Federal Reserve system. He didn't graduate from an Ivy League school, nor did he hold senior positions at Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley. Born in a small town in Nebraska with a population of less than 8,000, he began his career at Bemidji State University, where he earned a bachelor's degree in economics. In 1985, he received a doctorate in economics from Washington State University, embarking on a long academic career that spanned 24 years, including teaching and research at Indiana University, the University of Kentucky, and the University of Notre Dame. He then spent 24 years in academia researching monetary theory, focusing primarily on central bank independence, tenure systems, and market coordination mechanisms. He left university in 2009 to join the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis as Director of Research. In 2019, he was nominated by Trump to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The nomination process was fraught with controversy, and the confirmation process was not smooth, but on December 3, 2020, the Senate confirmed his appointment by a narrow margin of 48 to 47. At 61, Waller entered the highest decision-making body of the Federal Reserve, older than most governors. This proved to be an advantage: he had no baggage or beholden to Wall Street. Having spent time at the St. Louis Fed, he understood that the Fed was not a monolithic entity, and that dissenting voices were not only tolerated but sometimes even encouraged. This approach allows him to maintain both professional judgment and freedom of expression, without being pigeonholed as a spokesperson for a particular faction. From Trump's perspective, such a figure might be easier to "use readily," while in the eyes of the market, such a candidate represents "less uncertainty." But in a power dynamic entwined with bureaucracy and political will, Waller isn't the type of person who's naturally sought after by the market . His career path has been relatively academic and technical, and he's not known for his public speaking skills, nor does he frequently appear on financial television. Yet, it is this man who has gradually become the "consensus candidate" frequently mentioned in various market tools and political commentaries. The reason is that he possesses three compatibility characteristics : First, the monetary policy style is flexible but not speculative. Waller is neither a typical inflation hawk nor a monetary easing advocate. He advocates that policy should be shaped by economic conditions: in 2019, he supported rate cuts to preempt a recession; in 2022, he favored rapid rate hikes to curb inflation; and in 2025, amidst a slowing economy and falling inflation, he became one of the first Fed governors to vote for a rate cut. This non-ideological approach to policymaking is surprisingly rare in the current highly politicized Fed landscape. Second, the political relationship is clear and the technical image is extremely clean. Waller, nominated by Trump to the Federal Reserve Board in 2020, is one of the few monetary policy officials within the Republican system who achieves both technical neutrality and political compatibility. Neither considered a Trump confidant nor ostracized by the party establishment, his unique centrist position affords him greater political wiggle room amidst the fierce partisan competition. Unlike Hassett, who has a strong political affiliation and a clear-cut stance, and unlike Warsh, who has close ties to Wall Street, Waller exhibits a more purely technocratic character. He is more easily seen as a "trustworthy professional." In the context of highly polarized American politics, this non-ideological, professional-based image makes him a stable and easily accepted candidate. Third, there is a degree of tolerance within the system regarding encryption technology. Waller isn't a true "crypto believer," but he's been one of the most vocal voices within the Federal Reserve system on topics like stablecoins, AI-powered payments, and tokenization . He doesn't advocate for government-led innovation, nor does he oppose CBDCs. However, he supports private stablecoins as a tool for improving payment efficiency, arguing that "the government should build the underlying infrastructure like a highway, leaving the rest to the market." Compared with the other two candidates, he may be the only senior Fed official who clearly sends a signal of "public-private collaboration" between traditional finance and digital assets. Sense of smell and rhythm: He knows when to speak and when to shut up In July this year, the Federal Reserve held its summer FOMC meeting. Although the market generally expected to continue to "maintain interest rates unchanged", a rare scene finally occurred at the meeting: two directors, Waller and Michelle Bowman, voted against it , advocating an immediate interest rate cut of 25 basis points. This type of "minority veto" is not common within the Fed. The last time it occurred was in 1993. Two weeks before the vote, Waller had already signaled his stance at a central bank seminar at New York University. His public remarks explicitly argued that "current economic data supports a moderate rate cut." On the surface, this was a technical advance communication; however, the rhythm revealed a political signal. At the time, Trump had a love-hate relationship with Powell, having previously repeatedly attacked him on Truth Social, demanding an "immediate rate cut." Waller's vote and speech neither fully aligned with the president's, nor did they offer Powell cover. He struck a balance between "policy adjustments" and "technical independence." In a highly politicized Federal Reserve environment, directors who are able to strike a balance and choose the right time to express their views appear to have more leadership qualities . Trump criticizes Powell for 'poor and incompetent' performance in overseeing Fed building construction If it comes to power, how will the crypto market react? The crypto market's debate over who will helm the Federal Reserve has never been merely a peripheral gossip; it reflects a triple threat of policy expectations, market sentiment, and regulatory path. If Waller truly takes the chairmanship, we need to seriously consider how these three roles will re-price the future. First, it is a large-scale opening of a “regulatory dialogue window” for stablecoin issuers and compliance tracks. Waller has repeatedly spoken out against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), stating they "cannot address the market failures of the existing payment system." He instead emphasized the advantages of private stablecoins (such as USDC, DAI, and PayPal USD) in improving payment efficiency and cross-border settlement. He emphasized that regulation should come from "Congressional legislation rather than institutional expansion," and called for "these new technologies to be free of stigmatization." This means that if he becomes chairman, projects like Circle, MakerDAO, and Ethena could potentially enter a period of "regulatory path determination," freeing them from the constant gray area between the SEC and CFTC. More importantly, Waller's philosophy of "market-driven, government-supported" could prompt supporting agencies like the Ministry of Finance and the FDIC to collaborate on developing a stablecoin regulatory framework, promoting the implementation of policies requiring "licensing, reserve regulation, and standardized information disclosure." Secondly, for main chain assets such as BTC and ETH, it is a medium-term protection umbrella of "positive sentiment + relaxed regulation" While Waller hasn’t publicly praised Bitcoin or Ethereum, he did say in 2024 that “the Fed shouldn’t choose sides for the market.” While concise, this statement implies that the Fed won’t actively “suppress non-dollar systems” as long as they don’t touch the bottom line of payment sovereignty and systemic risk. This will provide a window for a "relatively mild regulatory cycle" for BTC and ETH. Even if the SEC may still question their securities attributes, if the Federal Reserve does not force CBDC, does not block encrypted payments, and does not intervene in on-chain activities, then market speculation and risk appetite will naturally improve. Simply put, in the "Waller era", Bitcoin may not have "official support", but there will be the natural benefit of "loosening of regulatory winds". Third, for developers and DeFi native innovators, it is a rare window for “central bank dialogue” Waller mentioned "AI payment", "smart contracts" and "distributed ledger technology" on many occasions this year, and said: "We don't necessarily adopt these technologies, but we must understand them." This statement is completely different from the attitude of many regulators who avoid or belittle encryption technology. This opens up an extremely important space for developers: not necessarily to be accepted, but at least no longer to be excluded. From Libra to USDC, from EigenLayer to Visa Crypto, generations of developers have struggled with awkward "parallel universe" communications with central bank regulators. If Waller takes office, the Fed could become the first central bank leader willing to engage with DeFi natives. In other words, crypto developers may be about to reach the starting point of "policy negotiation rights" and "financial discourse power." Conclusion: Predicting future transaction pricing and determining pricing direction by the chairman Whether Waller will be the new chairman remains uncertain. However, the market has already begun to speculate on how he will price the future if he becomes chairman. The market's 31% bet on him continues to climb, far exceeding its competitors. At this juncture, it's clear that expectations for interest rate cuts are being realized; the crypto industry is searching for policy breakthroughs; and US dollar assets are caught in a global triangle of increasing US Treasury issuance, high interest rates, and a recovery in risk appetite. As a politically acceptable, policy-predictable, and market-ready "successor," Waller is a natural bet. But perhaps there is another topic worth paying attention to: If he ultimately does not become the chairman of the Federal Reserve, how will the market readjust these expectations? And if he does take office, the qualifying race for the "next generation dollar system" may have just begun.Written by Ethan, Odaily Planet Daily On the morning of September 12th, Beijing time, the US federal funds rate market sent a highly unequivocal signal: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at this month's meeting had reached 93.9%. After five consecutive periods of holding steady, the market finally saw a directional shift in monetary policy. Meanwhile, another bet on the Fed's direction over the next two years was quietly gaining momentum: who would succeed Powell as the next Fed Chair? On the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, as of the same day, current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller topped the list with 30% odds, ahead of two other "Kevin" contenders: Hassett (16%) and Warsh (15%). However, the market also retained a more dramatic possibility: "Trump not announcing a successor before the end of the year" still held the highest probability, at 41%. This series of data suggests that the market is simultaneously betting on two paths: one is the consensus path of interest rate cuts, and the other is the still-uncertain battle for monetary helmsmanship. Between these two, Waller's name repeatedly appears in various trading perspectives and policy discussions. Why did the market begin to "believe in Waller"? The story of an “atypical Federal Reserve board member”: How did a small-town professor come to the forefront? Waller's background and resume make him an odd fit within the Federal Reserve system. He didn't graduate from an Ivy League school, nor did he hold senior positions at Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley. Born in a small town in Nebraska with a population of less than 8,000, he began his career at Bemidji State University, where he earned a bachelor's degree in economics. In 1985, he received a doctorate in economics from Washington State University, embarking on a long academic career that spanned 24 years, including teaching and research at Indiana University, the University of Kentucky, and the University of Notre Dame. He then spent 24 years in academia researching monetary theory, focusing primarily on central bank independence, tenure systems, and market coordination mechanisms. He left university in 2009 to join the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis as Director of Research. In 2019, he was nominated by Trump to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The nomination process was fraught with controversy, and the confirmation process was not smooth, but on December 3, 2020, the Senate confirmed his appointment by a narrow margin of 48 to 47. At 61, Waller entered the highest decision-making body of the Federal Reserve, older than most governors. This proved to be an advantage: he had no baggage or beholden to Wall Street. Having spent time at the St. Louis Fed, he understood that the Fed was not a monolithic entity, and that dissenting voices were not only tolerated but sometimes even encouraged. This approach allows him to maintain both professional judgment and freedom of expression, without being pigeonholed as a spokesperson for a particular faction. From Trump's perspective, such a figure might be easier to "use readily," while in the eyes of the market, such a candidate represents "less uncertainty." But in a power dynamic entwined with bureaucracy and political will, Waller isn't the type of person who's naturally sought after by the market . His career path has been relatively academic and technical, and he's not known for his public speaking skills, nor does he frequently appear on financial television. Yet, it is this man who has gradually become the "consensus candidate" frequently mentioned in various market tools and political commentaries. The reason is that he possesses three compatibility characteristics : First, the monetary policy style is flexible but not speculative. Waller is neither a typical inflation hawk nor a monetary easing advocate. He advocates that policy should be shaped by economic conditions: in 2019, he supported rate cuts to preempt a recession; in 2022, he favored rapid rate hikes to curb inflation; and in 2025, amidst a slowing economy and falling inflation, he became one of the first Fed governors to vote for a rate cut. This non-ideological approach to policymaking is surprisingly rare in the current highly politicized Fed landscape. Second, the political relationship is clear and the technical image is extremely clean. Waller, nominated by Trump to the Federal Reserve Board in 2020, is one of the few monetary policy officials within the Republican system who achieves both technical neutrality and political compatibility. Neither considered a Trump confidant nor ostracized by the party establishment, his unique centrist position affords him greater political wiggle room amidst the fierce partisan competition. Unlike Hassett, who has a strong political affiliation and a clear-cut stance, and unlike Warsh, who has close ties to Wall Street, Waller exhibits a more purely technocratic character. He is more easily seen as a "trustworthy professional." In the context of highly polarized American politics, this non-ideological, professional-based image makes him a stable and easily accepted candidate. Third, there is a degree of tolerance within the system regarding encryption technology. Waller isn't a true "crypto believer," but he's been one of the most vocal voices within the Federal Reserve system on topics like stablecoins, AI-powered payments, and tokenization . He doesn't advocate for government-led innovation, nor does he oppose CBDCs. However, he supports private stablecoins as a tool for improving payment efficiency, arguing that "the government should build the underlying infrastructure like a highway, leaving the rest to the market." Compared with the other two candidates, he may be the only senior Fed official who clearly sends a signal of "public-private collaboration" between traditional finance and digital assets. Sense of smell and rhythm: He knows when to speak and when to shut up In July this year, the Federal Reserve held its summer FOMC meeting. Although the market generally expected to continue to "maintain interest rates unchanged", a rare scene finally occurred at the meeting: two directors, Waller and Michelle Bowman, voted against it , advocating an immediate interest rate cut of 25 basis points. This type of "minority veto" is not common within the Fed. The last time it occurred was in 1993. Two weeks before the vote, Waller had already signaled his stance at a central bank seminar at New York University. His public remarks explicitly argued that "current economic data supports a moderate rate cut." On the surface, this was a technical advance communication; however, the rhythm revealed a political signal. At the time, Trump had a love-hate relationship with Powell, having previously repeatedly attacked him on Truth Social, demanding an "immediate rate cut." Waller's vote and speech neither fully aligned with the president's, nor did they offer Powell cover. He struck a balance between "policy adjustments" and "technical independence." In a highly politicized Federal Reserve environment, directors who are able to strike a balance and choose the right time to express their views appear to have more leadership qualities . Trump criticizes Powell for 'poor and incompetent' performance in overseeing Fed building construction If it comes to power, how will the crypto market react? The crypto market's debate over who will helm the Federal Reserve has never been merely a peripheral gossip; it reflects a triple threat of policy expectations, market sentiment, and regulatory path. If Waller truly takes the chairmanship, we need to seriously consider how these three roles will re-price the future. First, it is a large-scale opening of a “regulatory dialogue window” for stablecoin issuers and compliance tracks. Waller has repeatedly spoken out against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), stating they "cannot address the market failures of the existing payment system." He instead emphasized the advantages of private stablecoins (such as USDC, DAI, and PayPal USD) in improving payment efficiency and cross-border settlement. He emphasized that regulation should come from "Congressional legislation rather than institutional expansion," and called for "these new technologies to be free of stigmatization." This means that if he becomes chairman, projects like Circle, MakerDAO, and Ethena could potentially enter a period of "regulatory path determination," freeing them from the constant gray area between the SEC and CFTC. More importantly, Waller's philosophy of "market-driven, government-supported" could prompt supporting agencies like the Ministry of Finance and the FDIC to collaborate on developing a stablecoin regulatory framework, promoting the implementation of policies requiring "licensing, reserve regulation, and standardized information disclosure." Secondly, for main chain assets such as BTC and ETH, it is a medium-term protection umbrella of "positive sentiment + relaxed regulation" While Waller hasn’t publicly praised Bitcoin or Ethereum, he did say in 2024 that “the Fed shouldn’t choose sides for the market.” While concise, this statement implies that the Fed won’t actively “suppress non-dollar systems” as long as they don’t touch the bottom line of payment sovereignty and systemic risk. This will provide a window for a "relatively mild regulatory cycle" for BTC and ETH. Even if the SEC may still question their securities attributes, if the Federal Reserve does not force CBDC, does not block encrypted payments, and does not intervene in on-chain activities, then market speculation and risk appetite will naturally improve. Simply put, in the "Waller era", Bitcoin may not have "official support", but there will be the natural benefit of "loosening of regulatory winds". Third, for developers and DeFi native innovators, it is a rare window for “central bank dialogue” Waller mentioned "AI payment", "smart contracts" and "distributed ledger technology" on many occasions this year, and said: "We don't necessarily adopt these technologies, but we must understand them." This statement is completely different from the attitude of many regulators who avoid or belittle encryption technology. This opens up an extremely important space for developers: not necessarily to be accepted, but at least no longer to be excluded. From Libra to USDC, from EigenLayer to Visa Crypto, generations of developers have struggled with awkward "parallel universe" communications with central bank regulators. If Waller takes office, the Fed could become the first central bank leader willing to engage with DeFi natives. In other words, crypto developers may be about to reach the starting point of "policy negotiation rights" and "financial discourse power." Conclusion: Predicting future transaction pricing and determining pricing direction by the chairman Whether Waller will be the new chairman remains uncertain. However, the market has already begun to speculate on how he will price the future if he becomes chairman. The market's 31% bet on him continues to climb, far exceeding its competitors. At this juncture, it's clear that expectations for interest rate cuts are being realized; the crypto industry is searching for policy breakthroughs; and US dollar assets are caught in a global triangle of increasing US Treasury issuance, high interest rates, and a recovery in risk appetite. As a politically acceptable, policy-predictable, and market-ready "successor," Waller is a natural bet. But perhaps there is another topic worth paying attention to: If he ultimately does not become the chairman of the Federal Reserve, how will the market readjust these expectations? And if he does take office, the qualifying race for the "next generation dollar system" may have just begun.

 Trump criticizes Powell for 'poor and incompetent' performance in overseeing Fed building construction