Polymarket traders bet on Bitcoin dip below $45,000 by the end of 2026

Bitcoin is experiencing a divided market, as traders on Polymarket indicate it might be below $45,000 at the end of December 31, 2026, with a 51% probability. 

There is a reasonably balanced market, though YES shares are selling at 51 cents and NO shares at 49 cents. Although sentiment has already ranged between 44% and 49% in previous sessions, the recent shift to the middle suggests a slight shift in expectations, but not a trend.

At the same time, the recent decline in Bitcoin provides context for the shift. The asset declined 4.2% to about $70,817, from a level higher than $74,000 in the previous session. Market capitalization fell 4.51% to about $1.41 trillion, while trading volume rose 18.8% to $46.77 billion.

Bitcoin timeline for potential cycle bottom

Alongside prediction market data, independent analysis indicates a potential cycle low forming later in 2026. Crypto analyst NoLimit highlights historical patterns based on the time between peaks and troughs in cycles.

According to the data, Bitcoin bottomed 406 days after the 2012 cycle peak, 363 days after the 2016 cycle peak, and 376 days after the 2020 cycle peak. Based on that framework, the current cycle after the 2024 halving has not yet hit the projected bottom window.

Consequently, the analysis indicates that a major low could appear between October and November 2026. NoLimit noted, “I wouldn’t be surprised to see bitcoin between $45k and $50k by the end of 2026.”

The projection matches a possible price range of $45,000 – $50,000, supporting the bearish scenario in Polymarket pricing.

In addition, Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is cited by NoLimit as a key indicator on-chain. Historically, Bitcoin has gone into a “blue zone” on this metric around major bottoms, such as the 2018 bear market, the 2020 crash caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, and the 2022 crash. However, as of now, Bitcoin has not yet reached that level in the current cycle.

Whale selling intensifies short-term volatility

Recent activity on-chain is also contributing to market uncertainty. Blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain reported that a long-dormant Bitcoin wallet sold 1,000 BTC, valued at around $71 million. The same entity has offloaded 3,500 BTC since November 2024 at an average price above $96,000, resulting in an estimated profit of $442 million, or a 266x return.

Additionally, another early holder linked to Owen Gunden sold 650 BTC after earlier disposing of 11,000 BTC worth over $1.1 billion.

At the macro level, external factors also put pressure on sentiment.

A recent hawkish Fed rate announcement on Wednesday, when the central bank did not change the benchmark interest rate but only indicated a slower rate of decrease going forward, left risk-asset bulls dissatisfied.

The hawkishness was reflected in the so-called interest-rate “dot plot,” which indicates how the Fed’s voting members anticipate interest rates in the coming months. The median projection showed that this year will see only one rate cut, despite recent labor-market weakness.

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