Crypto markets were little changed Friday, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) virtually unchanged. Bitcoin BTC$70,383.91 has gained just 0.8% since midnight UTC and ether (ETH) added less than 0.1%.
Crude oil prices dropped below $100 on Thursday and were recently trading at $96 per barrel as the U.S. was said to be assessing whether it should release sanctioned Iranian oil to increase supply and reduce pressure on prices.
This gave a momentary boost to risk assets with U.S. equities showing signs of recovery, but that move has now reversed. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures are down by 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, since midnight, indicating continued market fragility.
Precious metals are now trading back in line with crypto after a ferocious rally to record highs at the start of the year. Gold is at $4,660 after putting in a top at $5,600 on Jan. 29.
Derivatives positioning
- Bitcoin open interest (OI) stabilized at $16.9 billion, roughly mirroring last week’s $17 billion and suggesting speculative activity has leveled off.
- Funding rates across most platforms have returned to a neutral range of 0%-10%, with the negative rates observed over the previous two days probably fueling an initial relief rally through short covering before contributing to the recent crash.
- The three-month annualized basis is holding steady at 2.8%, a sign that institutional conviction remains cautious.
- The options market reflects defensive positioning: The 24-hour call-to-put volume split has shifted to 43/56.
- Risk aversion is tightening, with the one-week 25-delta skew rising to 14% from 9%, notably increasing the cost of downside protection.
- The implied volatility term structure confirms a sharp front-end spike into backwardation, a signal that traders are bracing for an immediate, high-impact volatility event, prioritizing short-term hedging over stable mid-term growth expectations.
- Long-dated implied volatility (IV) remains anchored near 50%,
- Coinglass data shows $308 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 63-37 split between longs and shorts. BTC (93 million), ETH ($81 million) and others ($19 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
- The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $68,500 as a core liquidation level to monitor in case of a price drop.
Token talk
- The altcoin market continues to show signs of optimism despite many of the crypto majors remaining trapped in a tight trading range since early February.
- Quant (QNT) is up by 7.5% since midnight following a spot listing on popular trading app Robinhood, while AI token FET has extended its rich vein of form, rising by 6.5%.
- CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season index is currently at 46/100, falling back slightly but still well above February's lows, when it languished in the low 20s.
- While the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index is flat since midnight, the altcoin-dominant CoinDesk 80 (CD80) is up by 0.3%, indicating a slight outperformance.
