Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Stock Jumps 6% as Revenue Beats Wall Street Estimates

TLDR

• Firefly Aerospace reported Q4 revenue of $57.67 million, beating Wall Street’s estimate of $52.36 million
• Adjusted EPS loss of $0.38 came in better than the expected loss of $0.47
• The stock jumped 6.5% in after-hours trading to $24.44 after falling 1% during regular hours
• Firefly guided 2026 revenue between $420 million and $450 million; analysts expect $440 million
• 63% of analysts rate the stock a Buy, with an average price target of ~$38, roughly 70% above recent levels

Firefly Aerospace posted fourth-quarter results Thursday that topped revenue expectations, sending the stock higher in after-hours trading despite a wider-than-expected operating loss.

The company reported Q4 revenue of $57.67 million, above the Wall Street consensus of $52.36 million. The adjusted loss per share came in at $0.38, better than the expected loss of $0.47.

On a reported basis, EPS was a loss of $0.26 for the quarter, with a total quarterly net loss of $41.06 million.

Firefly Aerospace Inc., FLY

The operating loss for the quarter was approximately $86 million. Wall Street had projected an operating loss closer to $69 million, so the bottom line was a miss — but analysts are mostly watching the top line at this stage of the company’s growth.

FLY stock climbed 6.5% in after-hours trading to $24.44, after ending the regular session down 1%. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the Dow dropped 0.4% on the same day.

The stock has had a rough run since its August IPO, when Firefly priced at $45 a share. It has since fallen roughly 50%.

Revenue Outlook Points Higher

For full-year 2026, Firefly is guiding for revenue of $420 million to $450 million. The Wall Street consensus sits at $440 million, up from approximately $160 million in 2025. That’s a steep growth trajectory by any measure.

Analysts project the company will run an operating loss of around $180 million in 2026. The Street isn’t expecting positive operating income until 2028, on projected revenue of $1.3 billion.

The earnings estimate consensus had declined about 9.7% over the past three months heading into this report. There were no negative revisions in the 30 days prior to earnings.

Analyst Community Remains Upbeat

Wall Street is staying constructive on the stock despite the post-IPO slide. Of the analysts covering FLY, 63% rate it a Buy or Strong Buy. That’s above the typical 55%–60% Buy-rating ratio seen across S&P 500 stocks.

The current breakdown is 5 Buy or Strong Buy ratings, 3 Hold, and no Sell or Strong Sell. The peer group in aerospace and defense also carries a consensus Buy rating.

The average analyst price target sits around $38, which is more than 70% above the stock’s recent trading levels. The median 12-month target is $32, roughly 28% above the last closing price of $22.96.

Firefly’s Blue Ghost spacecraft landed on the moon in March 2025, part of NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services program — a NASA initiative that contracts private companies to carry cargo to and from the lunar surface instead of building its own vehicles.

That mission preceded the August IPO. Since then, investor attention has shifted to execution and revenue ramp.

Q4 revenue of $57.67 million marked a beat on the top line, and the company’s 2026 guidance range of $420 million to $450 million brackets the current Wall Street estimate of $440 million.

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