Ben Rice Quietly Becoming Key Part Of New York Yankees Nucleus

When discussing the New York Yankees, the conversation always begins with Aaron Judge, and rightfully so. He’s already won a pair of MVP awards, and remains the favorite to win his third this season. Moving on down the line, the names of Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and even the resurgent Trent Grisham come up with regard to position players, much like Max Fried and Carlos Rodon on the pitching side. You have to get fairly deep into the roster before the name of Ben Rice arises. That shouldn’t be the case for much longer.

The Yankees have had to endure the aging and ultimately the career endpoints of infielders DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo, and if not for the acquisitions of Chisholm and Ryan McMahon and the emergence of Rice, they’d be in a heap of trouble.

Rice was not considered a mega-prospect on his way up the Yankee minor league system. He was their 12th round in 2021 out of Dartmouth College. The Ivy League is not exactly a fertile breeding ground for MLB stars, but they just might have produced one in Rice.

Each season I prepare a list of top minor league position player prospects based on performance relative to league and level, adjusted for age. Rice made my list twice, ranking #81 in 2023 and #76 in 2024. That’s a decent ranking for a first baseman, indicative of at least an MLB future. But if that guy can also catch at the major league level, as Rice can – well, that type of bat can be quite an asset. He looked pretty overmatched in his 178 plate appearance trial in 2024, but has looked quite comfortable this time around. But the big story is that he has been much better than his actual numbers, at least according to his underlying batted ball data.

Let’s cut right to the chase – Rice “should be” hitting .288-.358-.545, for a 150 “Tru” Production+, way above his 124 wRC+. He’s hitting the ball much harder than average across all batted ball types – his 95.6 mph average fly ball, 98.8 mph average line drive and 90.3 mph average ground ball exit speeds are all over a full standard deviation higher than league average. While there are a handul of AL batting title qualifiers who have 90+ mph average exit speeds across all batted ball types, only three top that +1 standard deviation barrier – Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. and Rice. That’s pretty good company.

So Rice has arguably been the unluckiest hitter in the AL – his actual, Unadjusted Contact Scores lag far behind his adjusted fly ball (by 132 to 185), line drive (102 vs. 113) and ground ball (63 vs. 137) marks. Hunting around for red flags in his profile, we note that his batted ball type frequencies are unremarkable, he doesn’t pull the ball excessively on the ground and has a pretty solid K/BB profile, with a K rate measurably below and a BB rate measurably above league average. Though he’s batting only .208-.264-.469 vs. lefthanded pitching, he does have six homers in 96 at bats. I’ll take that. If he can make more contact vs. samehanded pitching, watch out.

Much of the mainstream baseball media is awfully excited about Grisham’s emergence this season, and believe that the Yankees should bestow big dollars and years upon him. I’ll write about him another day, but there are some flags in his profile that suggest his offensive performance is not repeatable. This is not the case with Rice – what we’re seeing is his intermediate term floor. He is not the second coming of Kevin Maas.

That said, Rice needs to really hit to have big value. While Grisham brings value with his glove at a key defensive position, Rice has fairly unique 1B/C versatility, but is not a particularly good defender at either spot, and spends a significant amount of time at DH. Onlookers also need to take into consideration that the hitters’ park narrative surrounding Yankee Stadium is a false one. Sure, there are some spots that are vulnerable to cheap homers, but the middle third of the field is a canyon, and all other types of base hits are suppressed there. Rice’s excellence as a hitter has been obscured to a great extent.

Bottom line – I recently updated the AL MVP race here, and while Rice didn’t make the Top 10, he was the very next guy up. His bat is real, real enough to overcome any defensive deficiencies he possesses. When the Yankees have productive, inexpensive homegrown regulars, they tend to win. It enables them to focus their free agent spending on fewer areas of need, and by extension, better players. Rice has quietly become a very valuable asset.