Gold’s Buy Climax Is Playing Out, And Bitcoin Could Pay The Price

Gold’s sudden reversal is beginning to influence how some market watchers see Bitcoin’s next move. In a market note shared on X, verified analyst Joao Wedson noted that the relationship between the two assets is unfolding in line with a sequence he outlined earlier this year wheregold peaks first, volatility erupts, Bitcoin reacts sharply afterward, and only later does liquidity begin to rotate back into Bitcoin.

Gold’s Euphoria Peak Was The Warning Sign

Retail and Institutional enthusiasm reached a massive peak when gold reached an all-time high of $5,589 per ounce in late January. However, crypto analyst Joao Wedson flagged the move at the time as a buy climax consisting of a sharp, high-volume price spike caused by peak euphoria. 

The chart attached to the post by Joao Wedson demonstrates that moment precisely, marking a BC near gold’s top before a violent drop, then a later test in early March that failed to produce a lasting breakout above the January peak.

As of today, Sunday, March 22, 2026, gold is trading at $4,493 per ounce, which is a decline of roughly $150 (about -3.23%) from yesterday’s rate of $4,643. On March 19, gold was trading as low as $4,551, a drop of roughly 18.5% in less than two months, with the sell-off stretching to seven consecutive sessions, the worst week of price action since 1983.

Gold Buy Climax. Source: @joao_wedson On X

How Does This Affect Bitcoin?

Bitcoin has largely underperformed compared to gold this year, but both assets have been coordinating during periods of declines. The upper half of Wedson’s chart draws a direct line from gold’s reversal into Bitcoin’s own decline. His point is not that both assets move tick for tick during crashes, but that Bitcoin often reacts more abruptly during the late stages of gold’s weakness.

Bitcoin does not lead during gold’s distribution phase, but it reacts to it and reacts violently. The speed of Bitcoin’s price movements means that the final stages of gold’s current decline, which may not yet be complete, carry outsized risk for the leading cryptocurrency.

According to the analyst, the real opportunity for a Bitcoin rally begins only when gold’s distribution phase is close to ending and capital starts rotating back into risk assets like Bitcoin. However, that process would not be a quick handoff. In his view, the transition may take months, and the full effect might not become obvious until late 2026.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,796, down by 2.6% in the past 24 hours. However, recent price action shows Bitcoin beginning to outperform gold, with the BTC/Gold pair on TradingView rising by 3.68% in the past 24 hours.

BITCOIN/GOLD. Source: TradingView

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView