Russia Prepares Final Push To Capture Pokrovsk

Last summer, I was on the frontline near Pokrovsk and saw firsthand how quickly Russian forces were advancing. I joined volunteers evacuating civilians from frontline villages, only to watch on DeepState maps as those very places were captured by Russian troops days later. Ukraine had to pull back to more defensible positions.

The news cycle grew darker each week. Pokrovsk – the city where composer Mykola Leontovych wrote “Shchedryk,” later known as Carol of the Bells – is now synonymous not with music, but with death and destruction.

Yet, more than a year later, Pokrovsk still stands. That in itself is a major victory. The city has become a fortress, and Ukrainian defenders are doing everything possible to prevent it from falling.

In early September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed that Vladimir Putin had told Donald Trump he intended to seize the Donbas within “two to three months, maximum four.” It’s a lofty goal for the Russians. As Wall Street Journal’s Yaroslav Trofimov observed, since Ukraine’s counteroffensive stalled in Nov. 2022, Russia has gained less than 1% of Ukrainian territory at the cost of hundreds of thousands of soldiers.

Russia hopes that taking Pokrovsk will provide an opportunity to seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast. According to Ukrainian military officials, the Russians are now aiming for a “decisive breakthrough” in Pokrovsk, redeploying experienced marine units to the area.

Russian Tactics In Pokrovsk

In mid-August, Russian forces infiltrated Ukrainian defenses east and northeast of Dobropillia with small sabotage groups, advancing about 10 kilometers deep, but they failed to consolidate their gains.

Ukraine’s 1st “Azov” Corps was sent to help reinforce the area and Ukrainian counterattacks in recent weeks have steadily erased those footholds. Within a few days, Ukraine’s 93rd “Kholodnyi Yar” Brigade recaptured the villages of Hruzke and Vesele near Dobropillia with support from reconnaissance, artillery, and drones. They also used unmanned ground vehicles equipped with machine guns to fire directly on Russian positions, helping secure the advance.

Ukrainian forces are now closing in on the Russian Dobropillia salient near Pokrovsk, using a pincer assault from the west and north. The developing cauldron would trap Russian troops with few options beyond surrender or destruction.

“By pressing aggressively without securing their flanks, Russia ended up overextending, suffering heavy casualties, and failing to consolidate many of the gains they made,” says Shaun Pinner, a former British soldier who fought in Mariupol in 2022. Multiple defensive lines were built, including within the city itself.

The terrain around Pokrovsk is also unforgiving: open, plowed fields with little natural cover, where rain quickly turns the ground to mud. “That kind of environment doesn’t allow for fast or clean advances,” Pinner told me.

“Pokrovsk and Dobropillya, where they’ve advanced recently, aren’t anything unusual for them – a lot of units, very high-intensity fighting, plenty of personnel. But nothing drastically different from two months ago,” says Dimko Zhluktenko of the 413th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems, who is fighting in Pokrovsk.

Russian forces are sending waves of small infantry groups to probe Ukrainian defenses, followed by motorcycle assaults. The dense summer treelines provide cover, helping these attacks advance under concealment.

Drones make the battlefield transparent, turning the massing of forces for armored assaults into a dangerous task when combined with artillery. “Every inch of the line is under constant surveillance drones, artillery spotting, and counter battery fire make it nearly impossible for either side to move unnoticed,” Pinner explained.

Russian forces also rely on “meatgrinder” style assaults, sending wave after wave of troops to breach Ukrainian lines. Those who manage to break through typically dig in, hold their positions, and wait for reinforcements, sustained in the meantime by resupply drones. “Only 20 out of 100 soldiers make it, as drones eliminate most on approach,” wrote Zhluktenko on X.

Drones Anchor Ukraine’s Defense In Pokrovsk

Zhluktenko told me his team focuses on striking infantry groups and vehicles up to 20 kilometers from the front, disrupting advances before they begin. “The reason is that we’re able to take out most of the Russians on the way in. My team focuses on infantry groups and vehicles 15–20 kilometers from the front. We hit them as they move so they never reach the actual battlefield,” said Zhluktenko.

Even so, he noted, the fundamentals of Russia’s approach have barely shifted – it is unmanned systems that continue to shape the fighting.

“There hasn’t been much change in Russian tactics. What’s really made the difference is the unmanned component. Drones have eliminated enormous numbers of Russians and their logistics. That’s important, because it reduces direct infantry clashes. Defending with drones is not only possible, it’s highly effective,” added Zhluktenko.

Still, supply shortages strain Ukrainian units. The elite Rubicon drone formation has been targeting logistics hubs on the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka front, cutting off resupply to frontline drone crews. “It’s a war for logistics in Pokrovsk,” one Ukrainian soldier told The Times in an interview. The pressure has only heightened the need for UGVs to take on frontline logistics tasks, reducing the risks faced by human operators.

Some units on the Donetsk front are suffering from a shortage of drones. Yurii Dymkovich, a drone pilot with the 23rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, told me, “We’re holding the line, but we have far fewer infantry – and too few drones. The warehouse is almost out of FPVs, so they’re being rationed. Each crew is limited to a maximum of 25 per day.”

Serhii Sternenko, a Ukrainian volunteer and head of a major charitable foundation, wrote on social media that as many as 60% of FPV drones procured under state contracts are either unusable or require extensive reworking after delivery.

Indeed, soldiers across multiple fronts told me they feel the strain of Moscow’s ability to mass-produce drones. It is telling that it took 19 Russian drones over Poland and three and a half years of war for Europe to grasp the scale of this threat.

Pokrovsk remains under daily pressure, but Ukraine’s effective use of unmanned systems has limited Russia’s ability to advance. “Taking a city like Pokrovsk isn’t just about pushing troops forward. Urban fighting is brutal and costly. It requires manpower, equipment, and a willingness to absorb massive casualties,” Pinner said.

He added that Russia would struggle to sustain such a campaign without continuing to incur enormous losses. “That’s why I don’t believe Pokrovsk will fall this year. If it does, it won’t be quick, and there won’t be much of a city left to speak of.”

For now, the fortress in Pokrovsk holds. Yet Europe must understand that without greater support, battles like this will tilt toward Moscow, where human lives are cheap and expendable.