On hydropower and net metering

Iran has the fourth largest oil reserves in the world with 157.8 billion barrels, next to Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Canada. It also has the second largest gas reserves in the world with 32.1 trillion cubic meters (tcm), next to Russia’s 37.4 tcm. This information is not new.

But I was surprised to learn that Iran also has a large hydropower capacity. In 2019, their hydropower plants produced 33.9 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity while the Philippines’ hydro plants produced only 8 TWh that year. But their hydro plants lacked continuing investments and innovation, so by 2024 they produced only 18.9 TWh, which was still larger than our 11.9 TWh that year.

I checked the details on the world’s large hydropower producers. In terms of volume, the largest is China with 1,354 TWh in 2024 or 30% of total global hydro generation. It was followed by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Russia.

In terms of hydro to total generation ratio, the largest is Norway with 88% in 2024, followed by Venezuela with 87%, and Ecuador with 66%. The global ratio is 14% (see Table 1).

TOURING AMBUKLAO
The huge Philippine Electric Power Industry Forum (PEPIF) 2026 was held on March 12 in Baguio City, organized by the Independent Electricity Market Operators of the Philippines (IEMOP) and co-sponsored by four corporations — SN Aboitiz Power (SNAP), Meralco Power Gen Corp. (MGEN), ACEN, and Exist.

After the PEPIF, I asked SNAP if I could visit their nearest hydropower plant; they agreed and toured me through the Ambuklao hydro plant, which is just one hour from Baguio City. SNAP’s Kris Vargas accompanied me as we were brought around by Ambuklao’s Plant Manager, Hollis Fernandez, who gave me something like a brief Mechanical Engineering 101 course in one hour. He’s a cool guy.

Mr. Fernandez drove us deep below the huge water reservoir and showed me Ambuklao’s facilities — a penstock, the three turbines (which produce 37.5 MW each), the electricity generator, the transformer to boost voltage for transmission, the cooling system, the elaborate electrical cables, then a long steep stairs — hundreds of steps with no landings — all the way to the top of the water reservoir. We did not climb it of course; my senior citizen legs would never forgive me if I did, even if I was an active mountaineer in my younger days.

During the PEPIF, SNAP President and CEO Joseph Yu said that their company operates a total of 673 MW of hydro installed capacity in Northern Luzon. He also emphasized that while SNAP owns the hydro plant facilities, the dams, weir, and reservoir are still owned by the government via the National Power Corp.-Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management  Corp. (NPC-PSALM) and the National Irrigation Administration (NIA).

I checked the Department of Energy website for information on the large hydro plants in Luzon. SNAP owns three of the nine plants — Ambuklao, Binga, and Magat. The good thing here as explained by both Messrs. Yu and  Fernandez, is that SNAP has significantly increased the capacity of these three plants. For example, Ambuklao’s capacity was increased from the original 75 MW to 112.5 MW, an expansion of 37.5 MW which was done without raising the height of the dam. It was done just through innovations and modernization of the facilities. Their Norwegian partner Scatec (formerly SN Power) provided the modern facilities and engineering innovations as Norway is the most sophisticated hydropower producer in the world.

Aboitiz Power (AP) is the largest hydro operator in the Philippines, especially with their purchase of the Caliraya-Botocan-Kalayaan (CBK) pumped storage hydro (PSH) via Thunder Consortium, AP’s partnership with Sumitomo Corp. and J-Power, both of Japan. Plus there are SNAP’s three plants and Bakun of Luzon Hydro, an AP subsidiary.

San Miguel Global Power (SMGP) is second largest hydro operator with their huge San Roque plant via subsidiary Strategic Power, and Angat Hydro (see Table 2).

The man responsible for the early expansion of SNAP’s business was Manny Rubio, its president in 2007 when SNAP acquired Magat, then Ambuklao, then Binga. He developed the project financing to acquire the three plants in a year — what a finance wizard! In 2007, Ambuklao was still non-operational after the big earthquake of 1990, Binga was running but degraded, and Magat he converted from a baseload to a merchant peaking plant. Within 18 months of operations, SNAP surpassed its financial targets, supported by effective trading strategies and disciplined operations and maintenance.

Mr. Rubio later became President and CEO of AP, from 2015 until his retirement in 2024. Then, the day after his retirement, Manny V. Pangilinan got him to head MGEN. MGEN is very lucky to have this engineer-finance whiz.

I also spoke to SNAP’s Mr. Yu and I listened to his presentation at PEPIF — the guy is another finance and tech wizard. He spoke not only about megawatts from hydro, megawatt-hours from battery energy storage systems, but also about digital transformation, data science, predictive analytics, and integrated remote operations. Topics that are Greek to me.

NET METERING
Meanwhile, a brief note about how net metering from rooftop solar owners are being paid by private distribution utilities (DUs) and electric cooperatives (ECs). Today it is paid at the average generation cost of DUs and ECs, which is higher than the average wholesale electricity spot market (WESM) prices. When the net metering policy was developed and enacted, WESM prices were high during the day, making the case of buying electricity at average generation cost valid. Also, solar panel costs were more than twice the current costs of around $0.11-0.13 per kWh peak.

Today, WESM prices are low and solar panel prices are low, so why pay the rooftop owners the average generation cost? This raises the rates of DUs and ECS, which are then passed on to customers who cannot afford rooftop solar. The business case for rooftop solar has changed, they do not need incentives like net metering anymore.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an international fellow of the Tholos Foundation.

minimalgovernment@gmail.com