Short-Term Holder Selling Pressure on Binance Is Cooling at a Familiar Level
A metric that tracks how chaotic short-term holder behavior is on Binance has just returned to a zone where Bitcoin previously staged double-digit recoveries, and analyst from CryptoQuant has flagged it.
This article covers what the STH realized profit/loss pressure metric measures, what the three compression events on the chart show, and what the current reading is consistent with.
What This Metric Actually Measures
The chart tracks two flows from short-term holders to Binance. One measures coins being sent at a profit. The other measures coins being sent at a loss. The 7-day standard deviation of those flows captures how volatile and disorderly that selling behavior is across the week. When it rises sharply, short-term holders are sending coins to Binance in erratic, high-pressure bursts. When it compresses, that turbulence is fading.
It does not tell you whether Bitcoin will go up. It tells you whether the selling environment is becoming more or less disorderly.
What the Three Compression Events Show
Reading the chart from left to right, the first green arrow appears around December 29. The standard deviation had been declining from elevated levels earlier in December, compressing toward the lower end of its range. Bitcoin subsequently gained nearly 10% from that point.
The second arrow falls around February 9, near the bottom of Bitcoin’s sharpest drawdown in the chart’s window. Price had fallen from above $95,000 to the low $60,000s. The standard deviation spiked violently through late January and into early February as short-term holders sent coins to Binance in large, erratic waves. Then it compressed. A reading near 277 on February 27 preceded a move from around $66,000 to above $75,000, a gain of roughly 14%.
The third arrow is dated March 23. The standard deviation has compressed again, with the current reading at 255.
What the Current Reading Is Consistent With
Loss-related flow from short-term holders still slightly exceeds profit-related flow on the right side of the chart. That means selling pressure has not disappeared. What has changed is the character of that selling. It is becoming less erratic rather than less present.
Each prior compression was consistent with a period where disorderly distribution was fading. That is not the same as a confirmed reversal. The pattern repeating twice does not guarantee a third occurrence.
What the data does suggest is that the environment is becoming less hostile. Whether that translates into a recovery depends on demand absorbing what supply remains.
The post Short-Term Holder Selling Pressure on Binance Is Cooling at a Familiar Level appeared first on ETHNews.
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