Night Reading | Interview with Silicon Valley VC Bill Gurley: Don't Seek Stability, Become Your "AI-Powered Version"

Source: Silicon Valley Girl

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

Abstract: Any job that can be called "craftsmanship" is not easily replaced because AI is not good at handling the nuances.

Bill Gurley has witnessed countless careers rise and fall over 25 years. The companies he has invested in are worth over $50 billion. Those who lost everything were not the risk-takers, but the conservative ones.

In his podcast, Silicon Valley Girl, Bill Gurley primarily discussed how AI is changing jobs, which professions will disappear first, and what actions can be taken if jobs are already shrinking. PANews has compiled some highlights of the conversation.

Host: I had prepared a question, but there was just a news report that Block is laying off nearly half of its employees in a bold move to embrace AI. Should people be afraid?

Bill: Yes, but we need to set some conditions. AI tools have been around for two or three years now; they won't be taken back or disappear. The most direct advice for anyone in any field to protect themselves from the impact of AI is to become as "AI-enabled" as possible. You must understand the boundaries of AI capabilities in your field and use it as much as possible . The more you use it, the more cues you'll be able to think of, and the more you'll begin to understand its capabilities. If you don't actively utilize it, you'll be left far behind those who do.

Its novelty lies in its impact on white-collar jobs, which people previously considered "safe." If you are indeed replaced, you can ask yourself: Is this really the job you love and want to do? If not, this may be an opportunity for you to find something you truly love.

Host: We used to think that intelligence would help us get through life smoothly. But now you're saying that "playing it safe/stability is now the riskiest move." Can you explain that?

Bill: I think the unfortunate reality is that many career counselors, mentors, and parents tend to push people into jobs they perceive as "safe." But if you don't love your work, according to a 2023 Gallup poll, over 50% of people lack a sense of engagement at work, with only about 23% truly "engaged." If you're in a position you don't care about and have no motivation to improve, you're like a sitting duck in the face of change. Parents' initial intention is for their children's financial stability, but life is only once. If you can find something you're genuinely passionate about, you can create a huge gap between yourself and those around you, and the financial rewards will follow.

Host: Can you list three characteristics of people who don't seek stability? What do they do every day?

Bill: First, allow yourself to pursue careers you once thought were impossible. For example, Danny Meyer, the founder of Shake Shack, originally wanted to go to law school and become a lawyer, but with his uncle's encouragement, he embraced his childhood hobby of finding good restaurants and writing in his journal on weekends, ultimately going into the food service industry. Second, hone your skills and keep learning . If you love something, you'll continuously learn out of curiosity, and absorbing new information will energize you; being forced to attend classes in a field you dislike will only make you feel bored and drain your energy. Finally , stay at the forefront of knowledge . AI and large language models record best practices that have already been written down, but the cutting-edge knowledge being explored today is not yet in the models. If you possess cutting-edge knowledge, you're ahead of AI models.

Host: When evaluating founders, what kind of behavior is considered "not seeking stability"?

Bill: Actually, I think the entire venture capital community has realized that you can't have a "play it safe" mentality when choosing founders. I believe the best and smartest people are very independent thinkers . They're naturally inclined to think outside the box . If someone thinks some of them seem a bit "crazy" because they're too dogmatic, they're right. And I don't think I'm the only one who would say that. If you study the writings of venture capitalists, you'll find a trend of looking for these personality traits. It can be traced back to Steve Jobs' ad about "crazy people."

Host: It feels like everyone should adopt this "crazy" mindset to succeed in this world, because you are becoming the entrepreneur of your own life, right?

Bill: Yes. I think that's a great way to put it. Especially in certain areas, this new technology is so disruptive that you're likely at risk if you're not in control of your career path. I often say that if you're a highly proactive person, confident in driving your own career development, these tools are essentially a "jetpack." If you want to learn proactively, there has never been a time in history where you could learn so fast, except with AI. And there are podcasts, like the shows you do. There are interviews everywhere on YouTube, and you can learn at an unprecedented pace. That's part of why I don't react much to "AI anxiety," because anxiety can hold you back, and right now, you should be running as fast as you can.

Host: Sometimes when I'm scrolling through my phone, I hear people, including yourself, saying, "We have a closing window of opportunity, so we should work very hard to seize it now." Could you elaborate? How much time do we have left? How hard do we need to work?

Bill: I don't think the window is necessarily closing; it's just that this tool came too fast, has too many functions, and everyone has to figure out as quickly as possible what it can do in their industry . I dislike dystopian apocalyptic narratives, like Dalio, who is arguably the most extreme doomsday theorist and always holds the narrative. I think that kind of thinking is unhealthy. This anxiety is five times higher in the US than in China. While this anxiety can sometimes spur action, it's more likely to make people hesitant to act. Instead of being anxious, what we need to do now is run as fast as possible.

Host: You also mentioned that it's very important to "forget/give up what once made you successful." How did you do that?

Bill: There's a saying, "Strong opinions, flexible adherence." Without strong opinions, it's difficult to take action, but never treat any opinion as sacred or unchangeable. If you cultivate a habit of continuous learning and realize the risks of sticking to your own views, you'll be better able to judge when to let go of past experiences.

Host: With so many intriguing things to consider, how do you find a direction that can become a lifelong career? What if you choose the wrong one?

Bill: You can try turning your "hobby" into a career. For example, I worked as an engineer for two and a half years, and then I read Peter Lynch's *One Up On Wall Street* at night and started researching and trading stocks. That's what fascinated me, and later I went to work on Wall Street. Don't feel trapped because you don't know the answer. Many people don't find their perfect career until they're 30 or 40. You need to create more opportunities for yourself to "shoot" and reflect every year: "Is this what I want to do for the rest of my life? Will I still want to do this 30 years from now?" Once the answer is "no," you should look for other directions. Bezos's "regret minimization framework" is similar, which is to imagine what advice your 80-year-old self would give to your current career choices. We've done surveys, and if they could go back in time and start over, 6 out of 10 people said they would make different career choices. Many people make the wrong choice because they listened to professors' praise or their parents' advice to pursue financial stability and became doctors or lawyers, without asking themselves what they truly love in life.

Host: Could you name a few jobs that can withstand the impact of AI, and some that are about to be phased out?

Bill: The first to be threatened are language-related jobs, such as translation and paralegals , because large language models are very good at reorganizing text. Also, if your job is simply writing code mechanically day after day, the demand will decrease because code is inherently a more constrained language than natural language. If you're the kind of person who can structurally judge why one algorithm is superior to another, or know how to streamline code to make it more efficient, I think those skills will still be valuable. But I still want to return to my earlier point: the best way to be a good software engineer in the world of AI is to become someone who knows how all the new AI tools work. Be someone in your organization who actively embraces them, rather than rejects them.

Jobs that are more resistant to AI are those that can be called "craftsmanship," because those in these jobs have a deep understanding of the "nuances" of their field, which AI struggles to handle. Furthermore, interpersonal relationships will become even more important. Do you have a strong network of peers? Do you have a strong network of mentors? Do you have a strong personal network? I think this is extremely helpful.

Host: How can ordinary people upgrade their AI tool settings to a new level?

Bill: The most important thing is to try various mainstream models , such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and let AI take on more agency work. For example, before I participate in podcast interviews, I have AI predict what questions the interviewer will ask me; or when I'm preparing for a TED talk, I use AI to conduct research, prototype design, and brainstorm ideas simultaneously. Many people don't realize how much they can rely on AI. When I was giving a lecture at NYU, I found that half of the questions students asked could actually be asked directly to ChatGPT. Now, for any information query, asking AI directly is much easier than searching on Wikipedia.

Host: How do you find mentors and build a valuable network of peers?

Bill: Regarding mentors, most people set their goals too high, directly approaching people who are unlikely to pay attention to them. I suggest two strategies. First, build a list of mentors. Utilize free online resources (podcasts, interviews, AI-powered searches) to research people you admire, creating digital profiles of them like a fan following a celebrity. This will not only boost your confidence but also test whether you are truly passionate about the field.

Additionally, seek out real mentors from people slightly below you on the ladder. They'll be flattered if they've never been asked to be mentors before. Don't start with a serious question like "Can you be my mentor?" Instead, make specific, small requests, such as, "I'm researching two paths that you've surely considered; do you have any suggestions?" Or you could even build an AI project using your own corpus data and treat it as a virtual mentor.

Regarding networking with like-minded individuals, it's recommended to find 4 to 6 people at the same stage of your career (ideally outside your organization) and create a group chat such as WhatsApp or Slack. You can share ideas, broaden your learning, and expand your professional network. When you have a bad day at work, or feel lost and unsure whether the problem lies with the industry or your current company, this group can help you see things more clearly.

Host: In today's world, how should parents educate their children? Are cramming-style tutoring classes still effective?

Bill: There's a serious "resume race" going on in North America right now. Parents start worrying about their kids' college applications as early as sixth grade, filling their schedules with chess, lacrosse, and even volunteering at animal shelters. While teaching kids perseverance is good, I worry they'll be completely exhausted by the end of college. It's terrible if they never have time to stop, catch their breath, explore, and discover what they truly want to do. Now, even majors require early application, robbing them of that opportunity. I suggest parents create as many opportunities as possible for their children to explore, expose them to different things, and try to discover their true, pure interests.

Host: For someone who is doing a job they don't like but is afraid of changing jobs and making a change, what is the one thing they can do immediately this week?

Bill: You can simulate new paths in the digital world. Set a scenario: "I plan to leave here in six months," and then use AI tools to rehearse it for you .

For example, you can ask AI, "I want to switch careers to this field within six months, what should I do in my first week?" It will give you a plan. You don't have to follow the AI's advice exactly; you can modify it. But this scenario-based planning process can help you overcome your fear of taking action. You can do this kind of rehearsal for three different directions, enriching it with new data each week. Once the details are filled in, it's no longer an abstract concept, and you'll begin to understand which path you're leaning towards.

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