Investors in ‘very risk-off mode’ as oil prices stay elevated — PSE chief

PHILIPPINE STOCK EXCHANGE (PSE) President Ramon S. Monzon said investors are in a “very risk-off mode” amid the Middle East conflict, adding that oil prices, currently at $131.97 per barrel, would need to fall to around $80 to signal a return to market stability.

“I think we need to see oil back at the $80 level… When the oil starts going down from $100 to $80, I think it will deliver a strong message to the market that the conflict has somewhat subsided and there will be stability in oil prices,” he said on the Money Talks with Cathy Yang program on One News on Tuesday.

Fuel prices in Metro Manila are set to increase starting March 24, with gasoline rising by P8 to P12 per liter, diesel by P15 to P18 per liter, and kerosene by P12 to P22 per liter. These adjustments will bring diesel prices to as high as P144.20 per liter and gasoline to P102.50 per liter. Kerosene is expected to reach up to P165.79 per liter.

“I think it’s a very risk-off mode,” Mr. Monzon said.

“I hope yesterday (Monday) was an exaggerated fear or anxiety by investors. But as we all know, [US President Donald J.] Trump has come out with a statement that he and Iran leaders are talking about halting hostilities. If that is true, or that really holds, I think the damage to our market would be transitory, not permanent,” he added.

On Monday, the PSE index (PSEi) slid by 1.98% or 119.44 points to close at 5,899.18, while the broader all-shares index declined by 2.04% or 68.28 points to end at 3,276.59.

This marked the PSEi’s worst close so far this year and its lowest finish in nearly four months, or since it ended at 5,887.58 on Dec. 4.

Despite ongoing challenges, the PSE chief cited strong aggregate corporate earnings growth among index companies last year, highlighting potential upside for the market.

He also expressed cautious optimism on the PSEi, noting that while the flood control corruption scandal has eroded investor trust, resilient initial public offering (IPO) performances suggest the impact has not peaked.

“In spite of the market being down 2.5% from last year, the price of Maynilad is still way above their IPO price… So I don’t — I think it’s peaked in that sense. But now we have to get over this new challenge, this new headwind, which is the Iran crisis,” he said.

Mr. Monzon also said the recent corruption scandal has been overshadowed by the Iran crisis, stressing that strong governance is essential across markets, particularly at the government level rather than only in the corporate sector.

“I think Filipinos are still waiting for really concrete action on the results of the investigation. They need to see more criminal cases filed. That’s what everybody’s hoping for,” he added.

The flood control issue has weighed on the stock market, which declined in 2025. The PSEi ended lower on the final trading day of 2025 at 6,052.92, down by 7.29% or 475.87 points from its end-2024 finish of 6,528.79.

On Tuesday, the PSEi rose by 0.62% or 37.02 points to close at 5,936.20, while the broader all-shares index gained by 0.56% or 18.64 points to end at 3,295.23. — A.G.C. Magno with inputs from Sheldeen Joy Talavera