Ethereum Shows Its First Real Signs of a Trend Shift and the Supply Data Explains Why

Ethereum has been one of the weakest assets in crypto for months. The price tells that story clearly. What is less visible is that while the price was falling, the supply structure underneath it was quietly tightening, and now the technical signals that typically precede a recovery are starting to align with it.

This is not a confirmed reversal. But several independent signals are pointing to the same level at the same time, and that does not happen often.

What Analyst Are Saying

Analyst Ali Martinez posted a series of tweets on Ethereum that build on each other and collectively make the case for a trend shift from bearish to bullish.

The first observation is structural. On the weekly chart, Ethereum has been trading inside an ascending triangle, a pattern defined by a flat resistance ceiling and a rising support line called the hypotenuse. The recent drop to $1,800 tested that rising support line precisely. It held.

What gives that bounce more weight is what happened on-chain at the same moment. The MVRV ratio dropped below 0.8 exactly as price tested that support. The MVRV ratio measures the relationship between Ethereum’s current market value and the average price at which all coins last moved on-chain.

When it falls below 1.0, the average holder is in an unrealized loss. Below 0.8 is historically rare and has marked major buy zones in prior Ethereum cycles. The price test and the MVRV reading converging at the same point is what Martinez describes as adding massive weight to the bullish thesis.

The third signal is the SuperTrend indicator. This tool tracks the direction of price momentum by measuring whether price is consistently closing above or below a dynamic support and resistance level. When it flips from bearish to bullish it signals that the overall direction of momentum has changed. The analyst notes the SuperTrend has turned bullish on Ethereum’s weekly chart for the first time since May 2025. That is not a price target. It is a momentum reading. It says the direction has shifted, not that the destination is certain.

Martinez summarizes the overall picture directly: the combination of technical support and on-chain buy signals on Ethereum is the strongest seen in a while. A bull market is not confirmed. The signals say the conditions are there.

Looking ahead, he identifies the MVRV pricing bands likely to act as resistance as Ethereum recovers. These bands represent price levels where significant numbers of holders are near breakeven, which typically slows upward momentum. The first resistance sits at $2,356. Then $2,647, $3,639, $4,632, and $5,624 at the upper end. Each level is a checkpoint, not a ceiling.

Where Ethereum Is Sitting in the Realized Price Zone

One additional layer adds important context for anyone trying to time exposure. According to crypto analyst Darkfrost, Ethereum is currently trading around $2,150, close to the average realized price of $2,300. That proximity matters. The realized price acts as resistance in the current environment because it represents the level where a significant portion of holders are near breakeven and may look to exit their positions.

Applying a standard deviation to the realized price produces a projected range with a high of $5,300 and a low of $1,150. Ethereum is sitting in the middle of that band. Not near the floor where risk is most asymmetric, and not near the ceiling where overextension becomes a concern. Right in the middle, which is precisely the zone where medium to long-term positioning becomes a question of patience rather than urgency. The signals suggest the direction has shifted. The realized price data suggests the path upward has friction right at the current level before it clears.

Why the Supply Structure Supports the Setup

The technical signals the analysts identifying do not exist in isolation. The supply data from CryptoQuant explains why the conditions for a recovery are structurally more credible now than at any point during the decline.

Two things are happening on the supply side simultaneously and they are reinforcing each other.

Ethereum’s staking rate has reached an all-time high of 31.44%, with approximately 38.31 million ETH currently locked in staking contracts. That figure represents nearly a third of the total ETH supply removed from the liquid market entirely. Coins locked in staking cannot be sold immediately. They are not available to exchange order books.

At the same time, the circulating Ethereum supply on Binance has dropped to its lowest level since 2020. Exchange supply is the most immediately sellable form of any asset. When it falls to multi-year lows while staking hits all-time highs, the total liquid supply available to meet any demand increase is at its most constrained in years.

That matters specifically in the context of a potential trend shift. When supply is this tight, even modest increases in buying demand produce larger price movements than they would in a more liquid market. The technical signals point to the direction changing. The supply data describes an environment where that change, if it happens, has less in front of it to slow it down.

Price Action

Ethereum is trading at $2,185 at the time of writing, up 6.38% on the week. Reading the weekly chart from left to right, price declined from above $4,800 in early 2025 through a prolonged downtrend, reaching a low near $1,800 in early 2026, the lowest level since the 2023 recovery period. From that low a recovery has begun. The current weekly candle is posting the strongest buying volume visible in the recent chart window.

The weekly RSI sits at 38.85, just above its average of 37.60. Selling pressure is losing intensity and buying conviction has crossed above the signal line on the weekly timeframe. The 50-week moving average sits far above at $3,066. That is how much ground the recovery would need to cover to reclaim the prior trend.

The first level the data identifies as meaningful resistance is $2,356. That is where the first MVRV pricing band sits and where a concentration of holders near breakeven are likely to begin selling. How price behaves at that level will say more about the strength of this recovery than anything visible in the current candle.

What the Bullish Case Does Not Answer

The signals are real. The question is whether they are sufficient.

The ascending triangle and MVRV reading converging at $1,800 is a compelling technical coincidence. But Ethereum has produced similar setups before without following through. A pattern holding once does not mean it holds again. The weekly chart shows price is still trading nearly 30% below the 50-week moving average. That is not the profile of an asset recovering. It is the profile of an asset trying to stop falling.

The staking data and exchange supply data describe a supply squeeze. But supply squeezes only matter when demand arrives to meet them. ETF outflows are still negative on a year-to-date basis. The Coinbase Premium has been persistently negative for weeks, meaning US institutional buyers are not stepping in at current levels. A tight supply with no demand recovery is not a catalyst. It is a holding pattern.

The MVRV resistance bands Ali Martinez identifies tell a similar story from a different angle. The first resistance is at $2,356. Ethereum is at $2,185. That gap is less than 8% away and already represents a level where holders are looking to exit at breakeven. Every band above it gets progressively harder.

The setup may be the best seen in a while. That does not make it enough.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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