Why is the crypto market dropping today?

The crypto market continued its downtrend on Friday as hopes of peace in the U.S. and Iran faded following a breakdown in diplomatic talks.

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest crypto asset, lost the $70,000 psychological support, falling to $68,560 at press time, down 2.8% over the day. Ethereum (ETH) fell 3.9% to $2,050 while other major cryptocurrencies such as BNB (BNB), XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) posted losses between 2% and 4% respectively.

Some of the top laggards of the day were Siren (SIREN), Rain (RAIN), and Provenance Blockchain (HASH), which recorded double-digit losses of 42%, 13%, and 10%. The total crypto market cap fell 1.6% over the day to $2.43 trillion.

As crypto prices fell, the market suffered nearly $300 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with $254 million coming from long liquidations, reflecting the dominance of sellers. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reading fell to 28, reflecting fear amidst investors who seem to be taking a risk-off stance amid market uncertainty.

The crypto market continued to remain bearish amid reports that the United States could be considering deploying 10,000 additional troops in the Middle East to bolster defenses against Iran. This followed after Tehran rejected the latest ceasefire proposal to end hostilities, as it called it an infringement on their sovereignty.

The ongoing geopolitical friction between the two nations has led to a blockade at the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime choke point, leading to significant oil supply chain disruptions. This has resulted in soaring crude oil prices, sparking concerns of runaway inflation across the globe.

Notably, WTI crude oil prices soared by over 31.6% the past month to over $93, while Brent oil surged 38% to over $107. Iranian officials have even threatened to push prices as high as $200. 

Expectations of sky-high inflation as a result of the energy war could force the U.S. Federal Reserve to take on stricter monetary policies as they pivot back to data-dependent decision-making on interest rate cuts.

While the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% during the March meeting, growing concerns of higher inflation could shift the odds in favor of a rate hike, a U-turn from the narrative observed before the Middle East war erupted.

Despite these separate reports suggesting that US President Donald Trump is prepared to extend the current pause on military action by another 10 days amid shaky peace negotiations, the market remains on edge.

Capital rotation to traditional safe-haven assets

Crypto prices dropped as investors seem to be rotating their capital into gold, which is touted as the ultimate safe-haven asset. After falling below key levels on Thursday, gold prices rebounded back above $4,400, up nearly 2% today. In comparison, silver outperformed with gains of 3% during the same period.

Several Asian tech stocks, such as Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s Kospi, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, also slumped as investor appetite for risk assets was severely dampened. Cryptocurrencies share a high correlation with these traditional equity indices.

Outside of the crypto market, several top tech companies such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon saw their valuations trimmed. Crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase (COIN), Circle (CRCL), and Strategy (MSTR) also faced selling pressure.

However, the deepest impact was felt by bitcoin miners such as Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms, which have seen their margins squeezed by rising energy costs and the broader market retreat.