AI to disrupt workforces before benefits show — study

A NEW STUDY by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and the World Bank concluded that developing countries are likely to experience upheaval in the workforce before they reap economic benefits from generative artificial intelligence (AI).

In a study, “Disruption without dividend? How the digital divide and task differences split GenAI’s global impact,” the ILO said that differences in digital infrastructure and task composition shape how the risks and benefits of GenAI are distributed across countries.

“Exposure to GenAI is higher in advanced economies, particularly in clerical and professional occupations. Developing countries, while less exposed overall, face structural constraints that limit their ability to benefit from the technology,” the ILO said after a review of 135 countries.

The report highlighted the role of the digital divide, noting that many workers in vulnerable jobs are already online even in lower-income settings, which could accelerate job losses.

“These jobs often represent relatively higher-quality jobs in lower-income countries, including clerical and administrative positions that have historically offered a pathway to decent work, particularly for women and young workers. The concern is that AI-driven automation could close off these pathways,” the ILO said.

According to ILO, the study also noted that “many workers in roles with potential for productivity gains lack reliable internet access in lower-income settings, limiting their ability to benefit from GenAI.” 

“The paper shows that workers in lower-income economies tend to perform fewer non-routine analytical tasks, rely less on computers at work and have more routine or manual work, reducing the scope for productivity gains from GenAI implementation,” it added. — Erika Mae P. Sinaking