Trading Moment: US stocks have yet to show signs of bottoming out; after a rare six-day losing streak, can Bitcoin repeat the rebound of 2019?

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

Last Friday, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell, marking their fifth consecutive weekly decline. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.23% last week, the S&P 500 Index fell below the 6400 mark, down 2.12%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.90%. Goldman Sachs stated that with the S&P 500 closing lower for the fifth consecutive week, historical data suggests that U.S. stocks may face further downward pressure in the short term. JPMorgan Chase pointed out that this phenomenon has only occurred a few times since 1970, most recently during the recession panic of 2022. Even during the COVID-19 pandemic or the market crash of "Tariff Day" last April, the S&P 500 never closed lower for five consecutive weeks; the average and median trend for the following three weeks were both downward, indicating that the market may still face selling pressure in the short term. Bank of America's Chief Investment Officer, Michael Hartnett, stated that although the bull/bear index has fallen to 7.4, ending the sell signal, now is not the time to "buy the dip."

For the first time since the start of the war with Iran, US President Trump remained unusually silent this weekend , issuing no new statements, taking no further military action, and making no comments on the bond market situation. As tensions escalate in the Middle East, concerns have arisen about the potential risks of ground operations. The US has deployed over 50,000 troops to the region and sent hundreds of special forces soldiers. Potential targets include the Strait of Hormuz, the Kharg Island oil hub, and the Isfahan nuclear facility. Macquarie Group warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, oil prices could surge to a record high of $200.

Affected by the escalating tensions in the Middle East and the energy crisis, Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened sharply lower on March 30, falling by more than 5% at one point during the session . Market analysts pointed out that the lack of easing tensions with Iran and the continued surge in oil prices are bad news for Japan and South Korea, which are highly dependent on Middle Eastern energy . The Korea Development Bank stated that it has held an emergency meeting to coordinate responses to the energy shock and plans to provide financing support to the Korea Oil Corporation.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin prices have fluctuated and fallen from a high of $72,000 last week to around $67,000, even dipping as low as $65,000 over the weekend. It's worth noting that Bitcoin will close its monthly trading session tomorrow. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around the monthly opening price of $66,973. If the price closes below the opening price, it will mean Bitcoin has recorded its sixth consecutive month of decline.

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin's return in March was -0.76%. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has only experienced one instance of a six-month consecutive decline, which occurred from August 2018 to January 2019, when it fell by 54.8%. However, it subsequently rebounded for five consecutive months from February to June 2019, accumulating a gain of over 200%.

Bearish view

Core logic: Macroeconomic inflationary pressures and escalating geopolitical conflicts have weakened expectations of a Fed rate cut. Coupled with weak on-chain asset accumulation, the market may face a deeper correction and shakeout.

• BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas: The escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have heightened inflation concerns, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. If the conflict intensifies, Bitcoin may test the $60,000 support level.

• BTSE COO Jeff Mei: Oil and gas prices will remain high in the short term and drag down economic growth. Crypto prices still have room to fall, and Bitcoin may fall to $60,000.

• On-chain analyst Willy Woo: Traditional on-chain model (CVDD) suggests that Bitcoin's potential bottom range could be between $46,000 and $54,000; if the macroeconomic fundamentals collapse, the market could enter an unprecedentedly deep bear market.

• Glassnode: The current Bitcoin price is at the lower end of the cost range for new investors, and the accumulated amount of Bitcoin is still lower than the level of historical strong rebounds. The market has not yet formed a clear upward momentum signal.

• Gold advocate Peter Schiff: It's unbelievable that Bitcoin is still above $65,000. Holders should get out as soon as possible and exchange Bitcoin for real gold.

• Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio: All positions have been stopped out. 2026 will be more difficult than 2025. Trading frequency needs to be reduced and patience needs to be maintained.

bullish view

Core logic: Spot buying shows resilience at key support levels, cyclical deleveraging is building momentum for the market, and bulls are poised to launch a counterattack after all localized negative factors have been priced in.

• CoinDesk analysis: After a high-level pullback, Bitcoin has entered a "reset period," which is essentially a normal adjustment due to cyclical deleveraging and liquidity contraction. 2026 may see a "multi-stage recovery," with this reset laying the foundation for the next upward cycle.

• Trader Cav: The weekend lows showed a significant negative order Delta and a long lower shadow, indicating that meaningful passive buying intervened to absorb selling pressure; trapped short positions may turn into forced buying if prices rebound.

• Trader Killa: As an investor, I'm gradually building positions in the spot market, where the risk-reward ratio is now unbalanced between upward and downward movements. I've currently taken a long position at $65,560, targeting the $67.8K and $69.5K areas.

• Trader Astronomer: Successfully established a long position near $65,000, with large buy orders supporting the price. Although there is still a magnetic pull between $61,000 and $62,000, the higher timeframes remain entirely bullish.

Ethereum Dynamics

Ethereum briefly fell below $2,000 over the weekend, and the assets under management of the US spot Ethereum ETF have plummeted 65% since October last year to $117.6 billion. Polymarket data shows that the market believes the probability of Ethereum being surpassed by USDT in 2026 has risen from 17% at the beginning of the year to 59%. Cointelegraph analysis suggests that Ethereum's market capitalization has only grown by 11.75% over the past five years, far lagging behind USDT's 622.50%. Currently, the price is in a "bear flag" pattern; if it breaks below the lower trendline, it may test the $1,250 target level in June.

Trader Luca points out that although the price has fallen below the $2,800 and $2,100 support levels, the risk-reward ratio will ultimately favor the bulls after a pullback to the bottom support area from last April. It's worth noting that if Ethereum closes below its monthly opening price of $1,961 tomorrow (March 31st), it will mark an unprecedented seventh consecutive month of decline.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on March 30)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

• Bitcoin ETF: Net outflow of $296 million last week

• Ethereum ETF: Net outflow of $207 million last week

• SOL ETF: Net outflow of $4.2373 million last week.

• XRP ETF: Net inflow of $2.6639 million last week

• Fear of Greed Index: 8 (Extreme Fear)

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, ONT, SENT

• Sector Performance: Most crypto stocks rose, with the AI ​​sector up 2.35%.

24-hour liquidation A total of 79,925 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $279 million, including $111 million in BTC liquidations, $69.16 million in ETH liquidations, and $18.18 million in SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

• Binance Leverage will delist UTK on March 30.

• Based Foundation: BASED tokens will be traded via TGE on March 30th.

• Bithumb has confirmed that BLY will be removed from its platform on March 30th.

• Binance Alpha will list R2 Protocol (R2) on March 30th.

• EdgeX confirms that the $EDGE token will be listed on March 31st.

• FTX will distribute an additional $2.2 billion to creditors starting March 31.

• Polymarket will expand its fee structure on March 30, no longer limiting itself to cryptocurrency and sports.

• Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 229 million tokens, worth about $4 million, on March 30.

• Zora (ZORA) will unlock approximately 167 million tokens, worth about $2.5 million, on March 30.

• Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens, worth approximately $3.2 million, on March 31.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: DeXe up 13.9%, Siren up 13.2%, MemeCore up 6%, Sky (prev. Maker) up 4.8%, and Chiliz up 4.3%.

Hot News

• Data shows that tokens such as SUI, EIGEN, and OPN will undergo significant unlocking, with SUI unlocking value estimated at approximately $37.2 million.

• This Week's Preview | FTX to Distribute $2.2 Billion to Creditors Starting March 31; US ​​Non-Farm Payroll Data Explodes

• BlackRock is hiring a Managing Director for Digital Assets to lead its cryptocurrency, stablecoin, and tokenization strategy.

• The Trump team appears to have dumped over $16.06 million worth of Trump tokens.

• The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative territory for 10 consecutive days, currently at -0.0857%.

• Analysis: Goldman Sachs' $152 million XRP ETF holding failed to boost prices; XRP may face a 50% downside risk.

• Data shows that "insider traders" on Polymarket have profited approximately $143 million since 2024.

• F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun withdrew 9,000 ETH from Binance and deposited them into Aave.

• Lido's proposal suggests using up to 10,000 stETH to buy LDO.