Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Stock: TSMC Is Up While Nvidia, Apple, and Meta Are All Down – Here’s Why

TLDR

• TSMC is up ~7.8% year-to-date in 2026, while Nvidia, Apple, Meta, and Tesla are all deep in the red.
• Q4 2025 revenue grew 25.6% year-over-year to $33.1 billion, with net income up 35%.
• AI and high-performance computing now make up 55% of quarterly revenue.
• Geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict has dipped the stock over 7% in the past month, but core demand remains strong.
• Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus with an average price target of $423.50, implying ~30% upside.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) has been one of the few bright spots in tech so far in 2026. While Nvidia is down around 10%, Apple off 8%, Meta down 21%, and Tesla lower by about 20%, TSMC has managed to stay in positive territory, up roughly 7.8% on the year.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM

That resilience doesn’t come out of nowhere. TSMC is the company making the chips that everyone else is designing. When Nvidia, AMD, and Apple need their most advanced processors built, they come to TSMC. That unique position in the supply chain keeps demand steady even when the broader tech sector wobbles.

The financial results back that up. In Q4 2025, revenue came in at $33.1 billion, up 25.6% year-over-year. Net income jumped 35% to NT$505.74 billion, or roughly $16 billion. Both numbers topped estimates. Gross margins hit 62.3% and operating margins came in at 54%.

AI is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. High-performance computing, which includes AI workloads, accounted for 55% of Q4 revenue. That demand is coming not just from chipmakers, but increasingly from cloud providers building out their own AI infrastructure.

Geopolitical Risk Clouds the Short-Term Picture

It hasn’t been a completely smooth ride. TSMC stock has fallen more than 7% over the past month, with investors rattled by the ongoing Iran conflict and its potential impact on energy supply chains. Taiwan imports 97% of its energy needs and holds just 11 days of natural gas reserves, much of which flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption there could push up energy costs and squeeze chip production.

Rising helium prices are also on the radar. Helium is used in advanced chip manufacturing, and any supply squeeze adds another variable to an already complex production picture.

Still, TSMC controls about 72% of the global foundry market. That kind of dominance doesn’t evaporate quickly, and the company is not standing still.

TSMC has budgeted $52 billion to $56 billion in capital expenditure for 2026, focused on expanding advanced manufacturing capacity. New fabs are under construction in the United States, Japan, and Germany. Demand for its 3nm and 2nm chips remains strong, giving the company pricing power that many of its peers simply don’t have.

Analysts See 30% Upside From Here

Wall Street is largely bullish. D.A. Davidson initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $450 price target, calling TSMC’s edge in advanced chipmaking “durable.” The firm highlighted the company’s ability to convert chip designs into high-volume production as a key competitive advantage.

Across seven analyst ratings over the past three months, TSMC carries a Strong Buy consensus. The average price target sits at $423.50, which implies about 30% upside from current levels.

For 2026, TSMC itself is guiding for close to 30% revenue growth. AI accelerator revenue is projected to grow in the mid-to-high 50% range annually between 2024 and 2029.

The most recent analyst to weigh in, D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria, set his $450 target based on TSMC’s leading position in advanced nodes and its role as the primary production partner for the world’s top chip designers.

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