Fermi (FRMI) Stock Craters 25% — Lock-Up Expiry, Earnings, and a $150M Tenant Gone

TLDR

• FRMI stock fell 25% as its IPO lock-up period expired, flooding the market with ~32.5 million new shares
• Q4 earnings are due today, adding uncertainty to an already pressured stock
• The company lost a $150 million anchor tenant and faces ongoing securities fraud litigation
• Fermi trades near its 52-week low of $5.93, down 81% over the past year
• Analysts hold price targets of $20–$35, but InvestingPro flags the stock as overvalued at current levels

Fermi Inc. (FRMI) is having a rough Monday. The real estate investment trust saw its stock drop 25% as a wave of selling hit the market following the expiry of its IPO lock-up period. Around 32.5 million shares became eligible for sale, and investors didn’t wait around.

Fermi Inc. Common Stock, FRMI

The timing couldn’t be worse. Fermi is also set to report its first-ever quarterly earnings today — its inaugural financial results covering the period from its founding on January 10, 2025, through December 31, 2025. The company scheduled a conference call at 8:00 a.m. Central Time (9:00 a.m. Eastern) to walk investors through the numbers.

The results were filed as a shareholder letter in an 8-K with the SEC.

Beyond the lock-up flood, Fermi carries a few other bruises. The company lost a $150 million anchor tenant — a material blow for a REIT still in its early stages. It also faces active securities fraud litigation, which has kept a cloud over the stock.

Year-to-date, FRMI is down nearly 23%. The 52-week decline sits at 81%, with the stock brushing up against its low of $5.93.

Despite the pain, Wall Street analysts aren’t giving up. Price targets range from $20 to $35 — a stark gap from current prices. That said, InvestingPro, which covers more than 1,400 U.S. stocks, flags the stock as overvalued even at these depressed levels.

Broader market forces aren’t helping either. Analysts point to rising Treasury yields weighing on real estate and utility names across the board, adding sector-level pressure on top of Fermi’s company-specific issues.

Project Matador: The Long Game

While the near-term picture is messy, Fermi’s longer-term build-out is still moving. The company recently secured a $165 million senior secured term loan from CSG Investments, an affiliate of Beal Bank USA. The funds are earmarked for six Siemens Energy SGT-800-57 gas turbines — each with 57MW capacity — due for delivery in 2028.

Fermi’s Project Matador received approval for its first 6GW clean air permit from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The company plans to file for an additional 5GW permit, which would push total supported capacity to roughly 17GW.

On the nuclear side, Fermi and Hyundai Engineering & Construction are advancing Front-End Engineering Design for four AP1000 nuclear units at Project Matador.

Analyst Sentiment

Citizens analyst Greg Miller reiterated a Market Outperform rating, citing Fermi’s data center buildout and capital expenditure plans at Project Matador. Evercore ISI’s Nicholas Amicucci called the air quality permit approval a positive development for the project.

FRMI is listed on both the Nasdaq and the London Stock Exchange under the same ticker.

The stock’s 52-week low stands at $5.93. At the time of reporting, it was trading at $6.18.

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