'Trouble is brewing': Data guru highlights trend that signals 'very bad' year for GOP

House Republicans are sprinting for the exits, and CNN's Harry Enten said they know "trouble is brewing."

A record 36 Republicans have already announced they will not seek re-election in November, the most in a century, and the network's chief data analyst explained what that means for the GOP's chances for holding on to their House majority.

"You know, I would say that House Republicans are running for the exits faster than kids do on the final day of school," Enten said. "I mean, just take a look here – oh, hello – most House retirements since 1930, so far this cycle already 36, 36. That is the grand record over the last nearly 100 years, my goodness gracious. That actually beats the former record in total, which was 34 back in the 2018 cycle, and that wasn't that long ago, and I do recall that was a very, very good year for House Democrats."

"The bottom line is this you don't run for the exits unless, you know, trouble is brewing," Enten added, "and House Republicans so far believe trouble is absolutely brewing."

Enten looked at past elections and found that retirements strongly correlated with election results.

"Sometimes I just like to pontificate, but sometimes I actually have facts behind me," he said. "Let's take a look here, okay, party with fewer House retirements since 1982 and midterm cycles, they went on to win the U.S. house 80 percent of the time. Far fewer Democrats are retiring this cycle than Republicans. When one side runs for the exits, right – I'm doing my best right here, my best Usain Bolt right here. When one side runs for the exits, they lose the House of Representatives."

"When one side stays put, it's because they think something good is going to happen, and House Democrats clearly think something is good going to happen, and House Republicans clearly think something very bad, very bad is going to happen," Enten added. "Again, we say this is basically a record since 1930, more than we've seen in 100 years, and that's just so far."

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