Powell: The impact of oil prices can be ignored for now, but if inflation expectations get out of control, the Fed's patience will run out.
PANews reported on March 31 that, according to Jinshi News, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated on Monday that the central bank prefers to maintain interest rates and take a "penetrating" approach to the energy shock triggered by the Iran war. However, he also warned that if rising prices begin to alter public expectations of long-term inflation, the Fed may not be able to remain indifferent. The Fed faces a dilemma: energy shocks often have a dual effect—pushing up prices on the one hand, and dragging down economic growth by compressing household budgets and increasing business costs on the other. Powell appeared particularly cautious about how the Fed would respond to this challenge. He stated, "We may eventually face the question of how to deal with it, but we haven't really reached that point yet because we don't yet know exactly how these economic effects will manifest."
Over the past two weeks, several of Powell's colleagues have further reinforced a signal: the era of "moderate rate cuts" is over. Nick Timiraos, a Fed mouthpiece, writes: Taken together, this shift in policy stance means the threshold for rate cuts has significantly increased compared to a few months ago—which could also make it more difficult for Warsh, once confirmed, to push through rate cuts as Trump expects.
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