Fitch says Qatar rating at risk due to Iran war uncertainty

Fitch Ratings has placed Qatar’s sovereign rating of “AA” on “rating watch negative” due to uncertainty over the Gulf state’s security environment after the Iran war.

“There is increased risk that the security environment for Qatar has more permanently deteriorated, even as the Iran war is expected to end over the coming month,” the global ratings agency said in a report. 

Threats include more frequent military actions in the Gulf region, which could affect the country’s economy and hydrocarbon infrastructure, weighing on its credit profile.

The state-owned QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas complex – the world’s largest LNG export hub, accounting for about 20 percent of global supply – was struck earlier this month. 

The strike has put about 17 percent of its LNG liquefaction capacity out of commission for several years.

QatarEnergy’s initial estimates put the annual revenue loss at $20 billion, the report said.

The defence ministry said that Qatar had intercepted all drones launched from Iran on Sunday.

Further reading:

• Qatari LNG shutdown puts 11% of global helium supply at risk
• Qatar says liquidity sufficient to overcome any war stress
• How LNG strikes on Qatar could reshape global energy markets

While most incoming missiles and drones have been intercepted, Fitch said even a small number that get through could cause material damage. 

Qatar could again be a target if the war continues or escalates further to encompass more strikes on Iran’s hydrocarbon infrastructure, the report said.

Fitch expects the prices of QatarEnergy’s remaining LNG and oil exports to be higher once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. 

“This would only partly compensate for the losses from lower LNG and other downstream product volumes in Ras Laffan in 2026,” it said. 
This week, Qatar Central Bank (QCB) confirmed that domestic liquidity remains strong and that capital buffers exceed regulatory requirements, despite the month-long US-Israel conflict with Iran.