Nasdaq Rule Change Could Add SpaceX to Nasdaq Within 15 Days of Listing

TLDR

• SpaceX could raise up to $75 billion in its IPO, making it the largest in history
• The company filed confidentially with the SEC using a process originally built for small firms
• Nasdaq’s new rule could fast-track SpaceX into the Nasdaq-100 within 15 trading days of listing
• Only about 3-4% of equity will float, the thinnest large-cap float in modern history
• Morningstar warns the “Musk Effect” could cause 20-30% stock swings on political or governance news

SpaceX is preparing for what could be the biggest IPO in history. The rocket company founded by Elon Musk is expected to raise up to $75 billion when it goes public, which would beat Saudi Aramco’s record of nearly $30 billion set in 2019.

The company has filed, or is about to file, confidential IPO documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This process was created by the 2012 JOBS Act to help small companies go public more easily. It was later expanded in 2017 to allow larger companies like Uber and Airbnb to use it too.

The confidential filing lets SpaceX and the SEC review the registration documents privately before they become public. This protects sensitive financial and competitive information until later in the process.

SpaceX’s financials are expected to be strong. The company’s Ebitda profit margins could be as high as 50%, compared to an average of around 20% for aerospace companies in the S&P 500.

Nasdaq Rule Change Opens Fast Track

Nasdaq confirmed on March 30 that starting May 1, newly listed large-cap companies can join the Nasdaq-100 index within 15 trading days of listing. Previously, companies had to wait up to a year.

This change came after SpaceX advisers reportedly approached Nasdaq and other index providers earlier this year to speed up inclusion. Getting into major indexes quickly would trigger automatic buying from index-tracking funds, boosting liquidity for early shareholders.

Prediction market Kalshi puts the odds of a SpaceX IPO before August 1 at 81%.

Musk has also said he plans to give up to 30% of the IPO allocation to retail investors. Morgan Stanley’s E*Trade is reportedly in talks to lead the retail share sale. Robinhood and SoFi may be left out.

The Musk Effect

Morningstar analyst Franco Granda flagged the “Musk Effect” as a key risk for investors. He pointed to Tesla’s history, where governance and political events tied to Musk caused average stock moves of nearly 12%.

For SpaceX, with only 3-4% of equity floating, those moves could be even sharper. Morningstar and PitchBook expect 20-30% swings on equivalent news events.

Granda also noted that SpaceX management typically delivers on targets, but only one in five projects gets done on time. The rest run two to three years late.

SpaceX is also pitching space-based AI computing as a core part of its growth strategy. Musk believes solar-powered orbital data centers will be cheaper than ground-based ones within a few years.

When the S-1 becomes public, investors will see detailed financials for a company responsible for more than half of all orbital launches on Earth.

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