Is $450B in Bitcoin vulnerable to the quantum threat? Analysts weigh in

A group of Bitcoin (BTC) wallets holding millions of coins could be vulnerable to future quantum attacks, research published by Google, Caltech, and quantum startup Oratomic shows. 

Key takeaways:

• The main risk centers on older addresses with already exposed public keys.

• More than 85,000 BTC from Satoshi-era or decade-old wallets have moved in the past year, suggesting some early holders may be repositioning.

Some older BTC wallets already preparing?

Google’s paper estimates that roughly 6.7 million BTC worth over $450 billion is stored in wallets that could become easier to target if quantum computers ever grow powerful enough to break Bitcoin’s cryptography.

That includes a large cluster of legacy wallets holding 50 BTC each, a leftover from Bitcoin’s early mining era when that was the block reward. Many of those so-called “Satosh-era“ coins have remained untouched for years.

Caltac and Oratomic’s paper claimed that quantum computing can hack a standard blockchain in roughly 10 days.

Meanwhile, analyst Kyledoops said the longer-term risk is concentrated in dormant addresses, and moving them may reduce the quantum risks, a warning some early holders may already be taking seriously.

Publicly reported transfers show that more than 85,000 BTC from Satoshi-era or decade-old wallets have moved in the past year, though the true total may be higher.

Also, these papers are not fully independent. Some authors hold stakes in Oratomic, and six are employees, meaning its conclusions may also support the company’s commercial interests.

Bitcoin price won’t recover to ATHs amid quantum threat

Bitcoin’s price stalled as analyst Nic Carter amplified the Google report in a viral Tuesday post, with BTC falling 3.5% afterward.

BTC remains under pressure as multiple analysts highlighted the quantum threat. That included Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investment, who said BTC will “never make a new ATH until Bitcoin Core takes Quantum risk seriously.”

Related: Peter Brandt, Polymarket traders don’t see new Bitcoin highs this year

Analyst MacnBTC hinted at further BTC price declines in the coming months, saying:

Others, like Bitcoin security expert Jameson Lopp, were more skeptical.

“These papers both show advancements in algorithmic efficiency and quantum computing theory, but one should not overlook the assumptions underlying these claims,” he said in an X post on Tuesday, adding:

Meanwhile, some price models have already projected a BTC bottom inside the $40,000–$50,000 range due to prevailing macro pressures, including elevated oil prices.