Tesla (TSLA) Stock: What Wall Street Expects From Thursday’s Q1 Delivery Report

TLDR

• Tesla Q1 2026 deliveries are expected at ~364,645 vehicles, up roughly 9% year over year
• The figure comes off a weak Q1 2025 comparison, when anti-Musk protests dented sales
• TSLA is down about 21% year-to-date in 2026, though it remains up ~35% over the past year
• Canaccord raised its Q1 estimate slightly to 370,000 but cut its price target to $420 from $520
• Wall Street has a Hold consensus on TSLA, with an average price target of $395.33

Tesla reports Q1 2026 delivery numbers this Thursday, and the market already has a rough idea of what to expect. Bloomberg consensus puts the figure at 364,645 vehicles globally — up around 9% from Q1 2025. That sounds decent until you remember Q1 2025 was already a poor quarter, partly due to anti-Elon Musk protests at dealerships around the world.

The company’s recent delivery track record has been rough. Q3 2025 jumped to 497,000 units after the federal EV tax credit was still in play, but Q4 — typically a strong period — slid to 418,000 once that credit expired. Full-year deliveries have now fallen two years in a row, dropping from a peak of 1.81 million in 2023 to 1.79 million in 2024, then to 1.64 million in 2025.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

For 2026, Wall Street is projecting a modest recovery to about 1.69 million units — though that estimate will likely be revised once Thursday’s numbers land.

Regional Pressures Weigh on Numbers

Europe has been a particular sore spot. Tesla’s sales there slumped sharply starting December 2024 before seeing a modest rebound in February. A mix of factors are at play: the so-called “Musk effect” — consumer backlash tied to his political role in the US — along with rising competition from Volkswagen and aggressive pricing from Chinese automakers like BYD.

In Asia, domestic EV brands are undercutting Tesla on both price and features, putting further pressure on market position. In the US, the loss of the federal EV tax credit has clearly cooled demand.

Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas nudged his Q1 estimate up slightly to 370,000 from 367,700, citing sluggish China demand, modest improvement in the US and Europe, and “decent” momentum in the rest of the world. He also flagged rising used Tesla prices domestically and higher gas prices as potential tailwinds.

Analyst Takes: Bull Case Intact, But Targets Trimmed

Despite the delivery headwinds, Gianarikas kept his Buy rating on TSLA. He did, however, cut his price target sharply — to $420 from $520 — citing compressed valuation multiples across Magnificent 7 names, dropping his EV multiple from 46x to 37x on 2028 non-GAAP EPS.

RBC Capital’s Tom Narayan also holds a Buy, with a $500 price target and a delivery estimate of 367,000 units for Q1.

Both analysts remain bullish on Tesla’s longer-term story, which increasingly revolves around robotaxis, Optimus humanoid robots, energy storage, and the recently announced Terafab project. That initiative — a partnership between Tesla and SpaceX — aims to produce over 1 terawatt of AI compute annually by ramping production from 2027.

Wall Street overall is less enthused. The consensus sits at Hold, based on 13 Buys, 11 Holds, and 7 Sells, with an average price target of $395.33 — implying about 11% upside from the current price.

TSLA is down roughly 21% so far in 2026, though it remains about 35% higher than a year ago.

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