Coinbase (COIN) Stock Bounces Hard Despite CFO Dumping $56M Worth

TLDR

• COIN jumped 8.9% on March 31 as the S&P 500 rallied 2.9% on reports Trump is willing to wind down military hostilities with Iran
• Bitcoin rose 2% to $67,838, helping lift crypto-related stocks
• Coinbase missed Q4 estimates — EPS of $0.66 vs $0.83 expected; revenue of $1.78B vs $1.86B expected, down 21.6% YoY
• CFO Alesia J. Haas sold 364,600 shares worth ~$56.5M in February, a 47.55% cut to her position
• The CLARITY Act remains a risk, with proposals that could restrict stablecoin yield — a revenue stream estimated at up to $1.35B annually

Coinbase had a rough March. The stock had been trending lower, weighed down by weak earnings, regulatory worries, and a broader pullback in crypto markets. Then came March 31.

Coinbase Global, Inc., COIN

Reports surfaced that President Trump told aides he is willing to wind down military hostilities with Iran. Markets took off. The S&P 500 climbed 2.9%, and risk assets — crypto included — caught a strong bid.

COIN ended the day up 8.9%, riding that wave of optimism.

Bitcoin played its part too. The leading cryptocurrency gained 2% on the day, reaching $67,838. Crypto traders had been watching Iran developments closely, knowing that geopolitical risk cuts both ways for digital assets — a hedge in theory, but vulnerable to rate hike fears in practice.

With those fears dialed back, at least for a day, COIN had room to run.

A Stock Under Pressure

Before the March 31 bounce, the picture for Coinbase was less rosy. The stock opened that Tuesday at $160.79, well below both its 50-day moving average of $185.81 and its 200-day moving average of $255.57.

The 1-year range tells the story: from a low of $139.36 to a high of $444.64. That’s a lot of ground lost.

Q4 earnings, reported February 12, didn’t help. Coinbase posted EPS of $0.66, missing the $0.83 consensus by $0.17. Revenue came in at $1.78B against an expected $1.86B — down 21.6% year-over-year. In the same quarter a year earlier, the company had posted EPS of $4.68.

Insider selling added to the pressure. CFO Alesia J. Haas offloaded 364,600 shares in February at an average price of $154.95, netting roughly $56.5M and cutting her stake by 47.55%. Over the past 90 days, insiders collectively sold 438,120 shares worth about $73.9M.

Regulatory Cloud Hangs Over Stablecoin Revenue

The CLARITY Act is the other big story hanging over Coinbase. A draft of the legislation raised concerns it could ban passive stablecoin yield — a revenue line some analysts estimate at up to $1.35B annually for the company. Coinbase has pushed back publicly on the proposed restrictions.

That regulatory overhang didn’t go away on March 31, but the geopolitical rally was enough to overshadow it for the session.

On the institutional side, there are some positive signals. Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating, arguing the selloff creates a better risk/reward entry point. Bank of America upgraded COIN to Buy in January with a $340 target. Rothschild & Co Redburn lifted their target to $281 in March.

Still, the consensus rating across 33 analysts sits at “Hold,” with an average price target of $267.47.

Royal Fund Management opened a new position in Q4, buying 12,000 shares worth around $2.71M. Institutional investors now hold 68.84% of the company’s stock.

Analysts expect Coinbase to post EPS of $7.22 for the full fiscal year.

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