Altcoin season on the way? All the hidden signals
An altcoin season might be on the way. To be clear, there is still no certainty about it, but at least there is a signal in this direction, at least in theory.
However, it is necessary to make some clarifications in this regard to avoid generating misunderstandings.
The altcoin season index
On CMC (CoinMarketCap), an updated index called the CMC Altcoin Season Index is published.
It is an index that measures from zero to one hundred the degree of shift in market attention within the crypto markets between Bitcoin and altcoin.
When it is below 25 points, it means that the crypto markets are in Bitcoin season, whereas when it is above 75 points, it means it is in altseason. Around 50 points is perfectly neutral.
Until the beginning of July, it was steadily below 25 points, also because Bitcoin was the true protagonist of the May rebound in the crypto markets.
However, starting from July 9, it began an ascent, which, however, stopped in the second half of the month in the neutral zone.
This “neutral” situation continued until September 9, because starting from last Wednesday the index began to rise.
However, it has not yet reached the 75 mark, although since Saturday it has been hovering around the 70 mark.
Therefore, while on one hand it cannot yet be stated that the crypto markets have entered altcoin season, on the other hand, it can be stated that they seem to be heading in that direction.
First Clarification: Timing
First of all, it must be specified that the trend described above is not necessarily destined to last.
In other words, it is not guaranteed that if it has risen from 50 to 70 points in a week, it will definitely end up surpassing 75 points.
It is true that in the past it often ended up exactly like this, but since this index is strongly influenced by market sentiment, being based on the emotions of speculators and investors, it can also change quickly, from one moment to the next.
Therefore, there is no certainty about it, even though the signal is clear, at least for now.
Additionally, it is necessary to pay close attention to altcoin seasons, because they are not always true altcoin seasons. Sometimes, in fact, they last too short to be genuine altcoin seasons, as happened, for example, in November 2024, and if they turn out to be just mini-altseasons, they risk being merely mini-bubbles that inevitably burst, leaving everything as it was before.
Second clarification: the anomaly
However, the most obvious objection is another one.
In fact, despite a rise in the altcoin season index from 50 to 70 points in the last week, the price of many altcoins has moved little.
The CMC Altcoin Season Index chart still shows that the market capitalization of altcoins has risen from 1.6 trillion dollars to 1.7 trillion, but this latter level is comparable to that of late August, when the index value was still in a perfect neutral zone around 50 points.
It is indeed an anomaly, although mitigated by the fact that Total3 has actually increased.
Total3 refers to the overall market capitalization of the crypto markets, excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins. Therefore, Total3 better tracks the overall market capitalization trend of altcoins.
In August, Total 3 had never exceeded 1.100 billion dollars, while on Saturday it briefly rose above 1.160.
These are not significant differences, but Saturday’s peak constitutes the local high of 2025, in line with the highs of December 2024 reached during the mini-altseason.
Therefore, it is an anomaly only because the prices have already started from a relatively high level, after the boom at the end of 2024, so the growth is inevitably lower in percentage compared to that of ten months ago.
Third clarification: altcoins
To avoid generating misunderstandings, it should be specified that when the crypto market enters altcoin season, it does not necessarily mean that the prices of all altcoins rise.
First of all, technically it only means that overall altcoins outperform Bitcoin, meaning they either rise more or fall less.
But especially during an altseason, there will always be some altcoins that will perform better (sometimes much better), and some that will perform less, with even rare cases of loss of value.
It is true that an altseason brings FOMO towards altcoins, but generally those that benefit the most are the ones able to attract the most attention, either because someone very well-known talks about them, or because they temporarily record stellar performances, or because they have a very active community that buys them.
In other words, not everything that glitters is gold.
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