BLS will halt all economic data, including Friday’s jobs report

The BLS said it will stop publishing all economic data, including the crucial monthly jobs report set for Friday, if the U.S. government shuts down this week.

Prediction platform Kalshi has placed the chance of a shutdown at 74% by Wednesday, raising the prospect that traders, economists, and the Federal Reserve could lose access to the reports they rely on to gauge the economy.

This announcement came through a 73‑page contingency plan released on Friday by the Labor Department, which oversees the BLS, outlining how it would suspend operations and public reporting during a funding lapse.

The plan stated that it was designed “to ensure that DOL agencies can perform an orderly suspension of programs and operations should a lapse occur, while continuing those limited activities authorized to continue during a lapse.”

This blackout would cover all key releases that typically shape market expectations and policy decisions. The department highlighted that the halt could extend well beyond a week if Congress does not reach a deal to keep funding flowing.

BLS stops nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims and CPI releases

The BLS said in its plan, “BLS will suspend all operations. Economic data that are scheduled to be released during the lapse will not be released.” This directly affects the nonfarm payrolls report due Friday, a monthly gauge of job creation at a time when employment growth has been slowing.

The weekly initial jobless claims data, usually released every Thursday, will also be frozen. On October 15, the agency is scheduled to issue the consumer price index, the last inflation reading before the Fed meets October 28‑29. That release would also be blocked if the shutdown continues.

“All active data collection activities for BLS surveys will cease,” the plan said, signaling delays for future reports even after the government reopens. “The BLS website will not be updated with new content or restored in the event of a technical failure during a lapse.” The agency typically issues about a dozen reports a month, covering import and export prices, wage growth, and other measures of consumer and worker conditions, but all of these would be paused under the shutdown scenario.

Shutdown risks credit rating and market stability

This potential freeze comes as markets debate whether a new shutdown will hit differently from past episodes. The Labor Department on Monday reiterated it is preparing for “a news and data blackout” if the government closes, showing that President Donald Trump’s administration is actively planning for disruptions.

In May, Moody’s cut the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 and warned of further downgrades if political battles cause serious economic effects. “The rating also could be downgraded if policy effectiveness or the strength of institutions were to erode to such a degree that materially weakens the sovereign’s credit profile,” Moody’s wrote at the time.

The agency also flagged “a deterioration in medium‑term growth or economic resilience to shocks” or large moves away from the U.S. dollar as reasons for another downgrade.

JPMorgan’s trading desk told clients Monday morning there is a “tail risk” of another credit rating cut tied to a shutdown. Such a move would likely push Treasury yields higher, raising borrowing costs for companies and reducing the value of future earnings.

Trump has summoned top Congressional leaders to the White House before Wednesday’s deadline to try to avoid the lapse and has warned of mass firings of federal workers if a shutdown occurs.

Data from previous shutdowns shows markets have often brushed off the impact, but some participants now say the fractured political climate and fragile economy could make this one worse. Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, said a downgrade would be more like a “technicality” for the Treasury market, which has already handled past cuts and national debt concerns. Bond traders also expect Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to “step in” if problems grow.

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