How Sunderland’s Dream Start Has Stunned The Premier League

A 1-0 win away at Nottingham Forest at the weekend means Sunderland AFC has had the best start to a Premier League season of any newly promoted side for more than a decade.

Sunderland has picked up 11 points from its opening six games, with wins against Forest, West Ham United and Brentford and draws against Aston Villa and Crystal Palace. The Black Cats’ only loss came against Burnley.

It’s a long way from the calamities of the “Sunderland Til’ I Die” era when the club fell as low as the third tier of English soccer and the Mackems’ misery was captured on camera in the hit Netflix series.

In fact, the start to this season is even better than Sunderland’s incredible 1999/2000 season in the Premier League, when the club finished 7th and striker Kevin Philips won the European Golden Shoe. That season, Sunderland picked up 8 points from the opening six games.

More recently, Sheffield United in 2019/20 and Leeds United in 2020/21 have enjoyed strong seasons on their returns to the Premier League, but they only picked up nine and ten points, respectively in their opening six games of those seasons.

So why is Sunderland doing so well and what does it mean for the rest of the Premier League?

Sunderland’s Smart Summer Shopping

Sunderland had the fifth highest net spend this summer following its promotion. It spent some $190 million, which was more than anyone else apart from Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur.

But net spend doesn’t tell the whole story as Sunderland started with a squad worth far less than its Premier League counterparts, and even after this spending, its squad value of $275 million is still the lowest in the Premier League and even below second-tier Championship sides Leicester City and Southampton.

However, Sunderland did bring in 13 new players, the joint most of any team in the Premier League, and head coach Regis Le Bris has had to integrate these players into his squad.

Eight of the ten players with the most minutes on the pitch this season have been new signings, with Trai Hume and last season’s top scorer Wilson Isidor the only two players on that list from last season’s squad.

Sunderland was promoted through the playoffs so had less time than Leeds or Burnley to prepare for the return to the Premier League, but despite this, Sunderland managed to finish the bulk of their summer signings early, completing ten signings by August 1st and making only two signings on deadline day.

Nottingham Forest by contrast made almost as many signings as Sunderland but only got three of those signings over the line by August 1st.

Sunderland’s recruitment team clearly had a plan ready for if the club got promoted and by signing those players early in the transfer window, it gave Le Bris almost the whole of pre-season to work with his squad.

Le Bris’ Pragmatic Approach

Le Bris’ style is seen as quite pragmatic and not particularly wedded to a philosophy. Sunderland’s success at the start of this season has come from being tight at the back, conceding just four goals so far this season. Young goalkeeper Robin Roefs’ saves against Nottingham Forest made the Premier League’s official highlight reels at the weekend, but the defense in front of him has protected him well so far this campaign.

Sunderland has faced an average of 12.3 shots per game, the seventh most in the league, but most of those have been shots from distance, as shown by the team’s low expected goals against and how only 7% of shots faced have been inside the six-yard box, the fourth lowest of any team, while 39% of shots faced have come from outside the penalty area, the third highest of any team. This has been achieved by having a solid, organized shape at the back, which Le Bris has said was a focus during pre-season and the opening fixtures of the season.

Solid As Granit

Le Bris has changed his back-four four times already this season, but one constant is that in front of them is Granit Xhaka. The club made a huge investment in Xhaka considering his age, but his signing was quite a coup.

As recently as 2024, Xhaka was named in the top twenty players on the Ballon d’Or list after guiding Bayer Leverkusen to the Bundesliga title. The Switzerland national team captain’s vast Premier League experience with Arsenal and consistent high levels of performance have helped anchor the rest of the team. Unsurprisingly, he’s played every minute of the Premier League season so far.

Sunderland also had a relatively kind fixture list to start the season. According to Opta, only three teams had an easier first five fixtures. The 3-0 win over West Ham on the opening day was also the perfect confidence booster which would’ve helped make the players feel they belong in the Premier League.

Strong support from the large crowds at the Stadium of Light has also helped and Sunderland could make its home ground a fortress this season. From Nottingham Forest to Sheffield United, recent history has shown that if a club’s supporters get behind the team, it can make their home ground a really tough place to visit.

Next up is Manchester United and then bottom-of-the-league Wolverhampton Wanderers, so Sunderland’s strong start might last a while longer yet.

What Sunderland’s Form Means For The Rest Of The League

In recent history, newly promoted teams that start strongly have generally avoided relegation.

Sheffield United in 2019/20, Leeds in 20/21 and Brentford in 21/22 all stayed up after strong starts, as did Wolves in 2018/19 and Newcastle United and Huddersfield Town in 2017/18.

This suggests that Sunderland has a very good chance of surviving in the Premier League.

If the club does end up in a relegation scrap, it will mean that survival in the Premier League will require something closer to the traditional 40 points needed for safety, rather than the 26 and 27 points required in the past two seasons.

With Leeds and Burnley also having decent starts, one thing is for sure: this season’s newly promoted teams won’t be the pushovers of recent years.