Humanoid Robots In Manufacturing: Timelines, Cost, And Opportunity

Robots have a robust history in U.S. popular culture. Think of the evolution in the movies alone. The earliest major character depiction of a human-like robot dates to 1927 and a German epic called Metropolis. But the next ten decades saw an evolution, from the sing-song-y Tin Man to the imposing Gort, from Star Wars to The Terminator and Transformers.

Now, suddenly, we’re at the precipice of making the science fiction of our past a very real part of our manufacturing—and societal—future. Humanoid robots are getting more advanced and capable, and if you believe the experts, it won’t be long before they’ve become a significant part of our workforce. Goldman Sachs estimates the market could reach $38 billion within the next decade, while Fortune Business Insights has it growing faster, to $66 billion by 2032.

That may sound scary, but it’s great news—because the global workforce continues to have major shortages across industries. We’ll be short some 85 million to 100 million workers by 2030, at a detriment of $8.5 trillion in GDP, according to a report from consultancy Korn Ferry. Locally, an expected shortage of 1.9 million manufacturing workers by 2033 risks derailing our efforts to reshore and revitalize American industry.

We need workers—whether human or robot. But how close are we to realizing the great potential of humanoids in our factories? How might robots and humans work together in the future? I chatted with Shahad Samimi, CEO of Humanoid Global, which invests in companies at the forefront of humanoid robotics, to hear his thoughts on the potential of the technology.

Why Factories Are Both Ready And Reluctant

On paper, factories are a natural fit for humanoid robots. For many manufacturers, automation is already a part of daily life on the shop floor, with robotic arms and cobots handling some repetitive tasks. Humanoids promise to go a step further, slotting into human-centric environments and workflows without the need for costly investments in reworking the makeup of the factory. “They’re being designed for the human environment,” says Samimi. “They can use tools, they can move materials, they can work alongside people—without requiring factories to be redesigned.”

But then there are the realities of manufacturing risk. If a service robot drops a tray on the way from kitchen to customer, costs are minimal. But a misstep in a factory could cause serious damage. So, for now, humanoids are cutting their teeth in mostly “low-level, easy tasks,” Samimi says, where the stakes are manageable. “We’re seeing companies we’ve invested in that are just purely focused on moving this box, this or that item, from A to B.”

At that level of involvement, a few companies are already wading in. Carmakers like Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz, as well as Chinese EV-maker Zeekr, have piloted humanoids within operations. Amazon is using them in their warehouses.

The potential is much greater, of course. In theory, in the future, robots will be able to do just about any physical labor that a human can. But as many of us know, manufacturing isn’t known for its rapid pace of change. Plants are expensive, long-life assets, and managers don’t want to introduce variables that could compromise reliability or lead to regulatory scrutiny. Samimi suggests risk-scoring assessments and independent monitoring could eventually temper concerns. But in the meantime, even as factories are eager for new labor solutions, humanoids must meet the industry’s high standards for safety, consistency, and trust.

The Cost-Tied Tipping Point

Like other transformative technologies, humanoid robots won’t scale until the economics make sense. Today, price is still a big barrier to adoption. The cost sits around $50,000 per humanoid, Samimi says, a figure that puts the technology out of reach for most small- and medium-sized factories, particularly as task-specific automation can be cheaper and more reliable for smaller jobs.

But Samimi sees an inflection point on the horizon. “If we see it drop to anywhere between $5,000 and $10,000, we’ll see the sector shifting from automation to autonomy,” he predicts. At that price, robots start to look like practical additions to the workforce, investments in adaptable labor capacity that can be deployed in various ways as needs shift over time.

The timeline remains uncertain—Samimi would offer only that he expects some significant movement by 2030—but a downward cost curve would follow the path of other disruptive technologies, from industrial sensors to solar paneling. When prices do come down and leading plants prove out the return on investment, humanoids could reach a tipping point that cascades across the country.

The Blended Workforce Of The Future

American manufacturing’s resilience depends on how we embrace new technologies to bring the best out of our human workers. The next era of automation isn’t about replacing all manufacturing workers—it’s about combining their strengths with machines. The workforce of the future, then, will treat labor as a hybrid of human and machine capacity. In the shorter-term, exoskeletons could be deployed as a first step—granting human factory workers “superpowers,” Samimi says, allowing them to lift heavier and operate with greater precision.

Humanoid robots won’t transform manufacturing overnight—the costs and risks still associated with the technology means adoption will be measured, and uneven, for the foreseeable future. But the direction is clear: humanoids and other forms of augmentation, like robotic exoskeletons, could help close critical labor gaps and boost productivity. And the factories that experiment and keep tabs on the development of humanoid capabilities will be better positioned to compete in a world where the lines blur between human and machine work.