JPMorgan Forecasts Bitcoin Rally to $170K After Futures Stabilize

TLDR

• JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin could climb to $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months.
• The bank says the worst selling pressure in the perpetual futures market has ended.
• Analysts believe the stabilization marks a shift from correction to accumulation.
• The projection is based on a model comparing Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted value to gold.
• JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin’s fair value to be about $68,000 higher than its current level.

JPMorgan expects Bitcoin to climb as high as $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months. The bank’s strategists said the stabilization in perpetual futures suggests that the recent correction phase is ending. They also stated that Bitcoin could shift into a new accumulation cycle as selling pressure weakens.

JPMorgan Sees End to Selling Pressure

JPMorgan analysts said that the worst of the selling pressure in Bitcoin’s perpetual futures market has passed. The team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou observed that open interest has returned to normal levels. They explained that this signals a healthier trading environment for the crypto market.

The bank emphasized that perpetual futures remain a critical gauge for the current market cycle. The strategists wrote, “The message from recent stabilization is that deleveraging in perpetual futures is largely behind us.” This statement shows their confidence in a possible market recovery.

JPMorgan said that the market structure now appears more stable than in recent months. The firm added that traders have reduced excess leverage. This change, according to the analysts, provides room for fresh long positions to develop.

Bitcoin Valuation and Price Model

JPMorgan based its $170,000 projection on a comparative model that aligns Bitcoin with gold. The model assumes Bitcoin requires about 1.8 times as much risk capital as gold. The analysts said Bitcoin’s current value remains well below its fair level.

The research estimated that private investment in gold stands near $6.2 trillion. In comparison, Bitcoin’s market capitalization is around $2.1 trillion. For parity, Bitcoin’s market value must rise by roughly two-thirds, implying a price near $170,000.

JPMorgan wrote, “Bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted fair value is roughly $68,000 above its current level.” The team called this a “mechanical exercise” that highlights strong upside potential. They expect this potential to unfold gradually within the next 6 to 12 months.

Institutional Developments and Market Outlook

JPMorgan recently announced plans to allow institutional clients to use Bitcoin and Ethereum as loan collateral. The move aligns with similar steps from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock. These efforts show rising institutional comfort with digital assets as collateral instruments.

The firm had projected Bitcoin could reach $165,000 in an earlier October report. That forecast was based on the same risk-adjusted valuation model. The latest revision reflects growing confidence in the crypto’s market stability.

Despite these expectations, Bitcoin continues to face resistance near $103,000 in early November. The coin also saw over $2 billion in ETF outflows during a prolonged redemption streak. JPMorgan, however, maintains that the perpetual futures market has stabilized, paving the way for renewed buying activity.

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