Next week's macro outlook: CPI Judgment Day is coming, Bitcoin may continue to hit a record high

PANews reported on July 12 that although the July 9 tariff deadline has passed, market participants are still facing many uncertainties. US President Trump has begun to send letters to inform the tariff rates. Most countries are still in intense negotiations with the United States, and the tariff implementation date of August 1 is approaching. Cryptocurrency is another winner this week. Some analysts pointed out that with the continuous influx of institutional investors, Bitcoin continues to set new historical highs. Looking ahead to next week, the United States will release the latest CPI data and retail sales data, which is known as the "horror data", which will affect when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. In addition, investors need to be wary of how Trump will "make trouble". The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

At 14:45 on Tuesday, Collins, 2025 FOMC voting member and President of the Boston Fed, delivered a speech;

At 21:15 on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman delivered a welcome speech at a conference hosted by the Federal Reserve;

At 00:45 on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Barr delivered a speech at a conference hosted by the Federal Reserve;

At 02:45 on Wednesday, Collins, 2025 FOMC voting member and President of the Boston Fed, delivered a speech;

At 07:45 on Wednesday, Dallas Fed President Logan will give a speech on the U.S. economy;

At 21:15 on Wednesday, Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivered a speech;

At 02:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions;

At 20:30 on Thursday, the monthly rate of U.S. retail sales in June, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 12, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in July, and the monthly rate of the import price index in June;

At 05:30 on Thursday, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy;

At 22:00 on Friday, the initial value of the US one-year inflation rate forecast for July will be released.

The risk of the US CPI seems to be tilted to the downside. The slowdown in inflation may allow some market participants to reopen bets on the possibility of a rate cut in July, which in turn may end the recent recovery of the US dollar. The market currently predicts that the data will go higher, with the annual rate rising from 2.4% in May to 2.7%, and the monthly rate rising from 0.1% to 0.3%. If this expectation is true, it will undoubtedly be a major blow to the Fed's rate cut.