Optimism spikes for a Thursday summit between Trump and Xi Jinping

Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this Thursday in Gyeongju, South Korea, during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, despite rising tensions between the two countries.

This will be the first face-to-face between the two leaders during Trump’s second term, although they’ve already spoken twice by phone, the latest one being in September. Markets are on edge. Prediction site Kalshi now shows a 93% chance the meeting takes place this week, with over $6 million wagered on it.

The stakes are high. This comes after weekend negotiations between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia. Bessent said on NBC’s Meet the Press that they had reached “a very substantial framework” that he believes will stop Trump’s planned tariff hike and make space for deeper talks.

That’s big, because Trump’s threat of a new 100% tariff on Chinese imports is still scheduled to go into effect on November 1, a move that could bring top-line duties to over 150% on some goods. But Bessent now says he doesn’t expect that to happen, citing the more positive tone from both sides.

Talks target tariffs, rare earths, oil and semiconductors

The Thursday summit will begin in Gyeongju, which is 11 hours ahead of Washington. So while the meeting starts Thursday morning in Korea, it will begin Wednesday night in D.C.. The summit follows private talks in Malaysia where both sides described the outcome as a “basic consensuses on arrangements,” according to Chinese state media.

The focus won’t just be on tariffs. Officials from both countries have confirmed that China’s rare earth restrictions and its continued imports of Russian oil will be major points of tension in the conversation.

Washington is growing more frustrated with Beijing’s chokehold on the rare earth market, and lawmakers are pressuring the administration to respond.

The two sides are also expected to touch on semiconductor export bans, Chinese soybean purchases, fentanyl trafficking, and military shipbuilding cooperation — though it’s unclear how far talks will go on any of these.

And then there’s Taiwan. A senior official traveling with Trump said there are no plans to raise the issue unless China moves first. Still, Trump made his view known before leaving the U.S., warning:

Trade ‘truce’ may hold for now, but risks remain

Terry Haines from Pangaea Policy said Sunday that these “nice noises” could boost markets short term, but long-term outlooks remain shaky.

His take? The two sides may have agreed to keep the truce alive for a few more months, but there’s no sign of lasting progress. The deeper problems (tech bans, resource supply chains, and geopolitical flashpoints) aren’t going anywhere.

Chinese state media issued its own line Sunday: “The two countries gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation.” But the facts on the ground suggest little trust on either side.

Trump’s visit to South Korea comes after a weekend stop in Malaysia, where he attended a bilateral session with Malaysia’s prime minister and joined the ASEAN leaders’ meeting. The Asia trip is part of a broader White House push to build stronger ties in the region while keeping pressure on Beijing.

Now all eyes are on Gyeongju, and whether the Trump-Xi summit delivers anything real — or just more talk.

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